RWC2019: The South Africa Problem
My initial attempt to base some RWC Outright probabilities on something tangible like previous results fell well short. Especially when it came to South Africa. It failed to identify the improvement in South Africa since their latest Head Coach appointment. The improvement is self evident. Previously they have received routine thumpings from New Zealand for example 57-0 in 2017. Since the Head Coach replacement they've played NZ 3 times. The aggregate score is 82-82, after 1 win 1 draw and 1 defeat. It would seem that the results post March 2018 are much more relevant when assessing South Africa. This drastically reduces my sample size for them (just 12 matches vs Big 6). So although using less matches I'll use extra information from those matches. In other words instead of a binary win/defeat I will use Points Differences. This will help capture the relative strengths better and close matches will get the reward they deserve. So here it is: P W D...