David vs Goliath
In the battle of wits between a simple punter (me) and a global multi million pound bookmaking giant (William Hill) - the giant wins but only in the most cowardly way.
William Hill offer promotions such as this one on the horses. If your horse comes in second they offer you a free bet. By carefully picking the right horses you can turn the odds in your favour and actually reverse the bookie edge in your favour.
I funded my account in December 2015 with €200 and by April 2016 have withdrawals totalling €3,870.
In order to beat me, the bookie could have got sharper with their odds - after all they do have databases of statistics and employs hundreds of risk analysts, traders, mathematicians and sports exports. But no - the cowardly way that they chose to beat me was to take their ball and go home. I can't play any more. My stakes have been limited and I am no longer allowed receive offers and promotions.
My secret is simple and relied on taking advantage of generous free bet offers - qualify for the free bets by backing favourites or at the minimum odds allowed by the offer (you lose less long term betting on favourites). I assume a 10% loss on these real money bets. This will earn me a free bet. With the free bets I used them on something between 9/2 and 10/1. These are the best odds to win big on the free bet because your stake is not returned. I assume to get 80% in real money value on the free bets this way.
This way a "bet €20 get €10" promo is worth about €6 to me (costs me 10% of €20 and earns me 80% of €10).
Bet €25 and get a free bet if 2nd is worth about €1.50 to me (costs me 10% of €25 = €2.50, and wins me 80% of €25 but only 20% of the time I get the free bet so 80% x €25 x 25% = €4).
However a promotion like money back if you're beaten by a nose is not worth playing. If you get the free bet only 10% (very generous estimate) of the time then the winnings on the free bet don't outweigh the cost.
For example:
It was this simple 10% 80% rule that allowed me to pick the profitable promotions and turn the edge in my favour.
William Hill have been added to the below list of cowardly bookie's that have denied me a fair playing field by restricting my account.
Ladbrokes
Sky bet
Paddy Power
Betway
Betfred
888sport
Follow me on twitter for more stories like this.
Although I have won money on these promotions it is by no means guaranteed. It is still gambling and you can lose. Even if you are lucky enough to win the buzz can become even more addicting and take up an ever increasing amount of your time that should be spent on family. Always gamble responsibly. Only ever gamble money that you can afford to lose. When the fun stops, stop.
William Hill offer promotions such as this one on the horses. If your horse comes in second they offer you a free bet. By carefully picking the right horses you can turn the odds in your favour and actually reverse the bookie edge in your favour.
I funded my account in December 2015 with €200 and by April 2016 have withdrawals totalling €3,870.
In order to beat me, the bookie could have got sharper with their odds - after all they do have databases of statistics and employs hundreds of risk analysts, traders, mathematicians and sports exports. But no - the cowardly way that they chose to beat me was to take their ball and go home. I can't play any more. My stakes have been limited and I am no longer allowed receive offers and promotions.
My secret is simple and relied on taking advantage of generous free bet offers - qualify for the free bets by backing favourites or at the minimum odds allowed by the offer (you lose less long term betting on favourites). I assume a 10% loss on these real money bets. This will earn me a free bet. With the free bets I used them on something between 9/2 and 10/1. These are the best odds to win big on the free bet because your stake is not returned. I assume to get 80% in real money value on the free bets this way.
This way a "bet €20 get €10" promo is worth about €6 to me (costs me 10% of €20 and earns me 80% of €10).
Bet €25 and get a free bet if 2nd is worth about €1.50 to me (costs me 10% of €25 = €2.50, and wins me 80% of €25 but only 20% of the time I get the free bet so 80% x €25 x 25% = €4).
However a promotion like money back if you're beaten by a nose is not worth playing. If you get the free bet only 10% (very generous estimate) of the time then the winnings on the free bet don't outweigh the cost.
For example:
| Offer | Cost[C] (10%) | Probability Estimate[P] | Win[W] (80%) | Expected Value = P*W-C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet 20 Get 10 free bet | 10% of €10 = €2 | 100% | 80% of €10 = €8 | €6 |
| Money back if your horse is 2nd - max €25 bet | 10% of €25 = €2.50 | 20% | 80% of €25 = €20 | €1.40 |
| Money back if your horse is 2nd by a nose -max €25 | 10% of €25 = €2.50 | 10% | 80% of €25 = €20 | -€0.50 |
It was this simple 10% 80% rule that allowed me to pick the profitable promotions and turn the edge in my favour.
William Hill have been added to the below list of cowardly bookie's that have denied me a fair playing field by restricting my account.
Ladbrokes
Sky bet
Paddy Power
Betway
Betfred
888sport
Follow me on twitter for more stories like this.
Although I have won money on these promotions it is by no means guaranteed. It is still gambling and you can lose. Even if you are lucky enough to win the buzz can become even more addicting and take up an ever increasing amount of your time that should be spent on family. Always gamble responsibly. Only ever gamble money that you can afford to lose. When the fun stops, stop.
Comments
Post a Comment