Bet Unfair
Read my blog for the tips that bookies do NOT want you to know. The proof is that they continue to restrict my accounts for using the strategies I share here.
Betfair have ordered a restriction on my account. So they join the growing list:
William Hill
Ladbrokes
Sky bet
Paddy Power
Betway
Betfred
888sport
The list now also includes Coral and 188bet (who still allow me bonuses but is basically unusable thanks to stake restrictions on horses).
In betfair's case I received this email - ironically just a couple of hours receiving a separate email inviting me to take part in different promos.
With betfair their promotions had been decent but not great. The horse offer was frustrating. Basically you place a bet at 3/1 odds or higher and if he wins then you get a free bet to the same value of your original stake. I stayed clear of this one as 3/1 price had to be the SP. After backing a couple of horses, and and then watching their SP drop to under 3/1 and so missing out on a free bet I decided the value was just not there.
Instead it was the double odds on winning correct score bets that made me more money.
If you bet on a correct score and it is a draw at half time then they will double your odds, with the double odds paid out as a free bet.
For example a €10 bet on 0-0 which is 9/1 in this case would return €100 for €90 profit. Betfair then match the €90 profit in free bets.
I only bet on 0-0 as this is the only scoreline that guarantees a half time draw and so guarantees the double odds.
The correct score market at the bookies is notoriously bad value so expect to lose lots of your real money bets back to the bookie. However even if you were to go 17 matches before you win then you have spent €170 and returned €100 plus your free bet of €90 (real money value roughly €72). Which still sees a profit. In reality - bad as bookies odds are - you shouldn't have to place 17 bets to win on a 10/1 shot on average.
You can limit your real money losses by laying your selection at the exchange too. You can see more on that strategy here.
For those that are interested, I had 70 bets of €10 on 0-0 and won 5 of them which returned €460 + €410 in free bets. So it averaged out in my case at about €1.30 profit per match. This is probably a fair return, I did feel that I was due another win as I had gone 23 matches without a correct score mostly doing odds of about 9/1. However perhaps I had just been spoiled picking up 4 winning bets in the first 47 goes. 70 games probably gives enough time for lucky and unlucky runs to balance out and give a somewhat accurate expected value. Although you can consider that just one more win would have given me an expected value of €3.50 per match. So you can debate the exact value of this offer but its clearly positive expected value in the long run.
That was my betting pattern leading up to the bonus restrictions, I have a Paddy Power account as well with the same username and email. Bonus offers were removed from that back in February and betfair and Paddy Power are now the same company. I had some horse bets on the Grand National day and on Cheltenham week as well. Apart from those the pattern was just football correct scores on all the double odds offers. My Betfair account is decades old. I had no recent withdrawals - the latest was one month ago during Cheltenham festival. I don't use the betfair exchange at all which should send out the signal that I am not a matched bettor. I either lay my bets on smarkets or don't lay them at all (save commission and time). I hope that this gives some people some clues as to what patterns the bookies are looking out for in terms of restricting people that take to much value from their promotions.
Finally, this week I am recognising some of my followers, so big shout out to my number one follower Johnson. Thank you for your continued support.
Betfair have ordered a restriction on my account. So they join the growing list:
William Hill
Ladbrokes
Sky bet
Paddy Power
Betway
Betfred
888sport
The list now also includes Coral and 188bet (who still allow me bonuses but is basically unusable thanks to stake restrictions on horses).
In betfair's case I received this email - ironically just a couple of hours receiving a separate email inviting me to take part in different promos.
With betfair their promotions had been decent but not great. The horse offer was frustrating. Basically you place a bet at 3/1 odds or higher and if he wins then you get a free bet to the same value of your original stake. I stayed clear of this one as 3/1 price had to be the SP. After backing a couple of horses, and and then watching their SP drop to under 3/1 and so missing out on a free bet I decided the value was just not there.
If you bet on a correct score and it is a draw at half time then they will double your odds, with the double odds paid out as a free bet.
For example a €10 bet on 0-0 which is 9/1 in this case would return €100 for €90 profit. Betfair then match the €90 profit in free bets.
I only bet on 0-0 as this is the only scoreline that guarantees a half time draw and so guarantees the double odds.
The correct score market at the bookies is notoriously bad value so expect to lose lots of your real money bets back to the bookie. However even if you were to go 17 matches before you win then you have spent €170 and returned €100 plus your free bet of €90 (real money value roughly €72). Which still sees a profit. In reality - bad as bookies odds are - you shouldn't have to place 17 bets to win on a 10/1 shot on average.
You can limit your real money losses by laying your selection at the exchange too. You can see more on that strategy here.
For those that are interested, I had 70 bets of €10 on 0-0 and won 5 of them which returned €460 + €410 in free bets. So it averaged out in my case at about €1.30 profit per match. This is probably a fair return, I did feel that I was due another win as I had gone 23 matches without a correct score mostly doing odds of about 9/1. However perhaps I had just been spoiled picking up 4 winning bets in the first 47 goes. 70 games probably gives enough time for lucky and unlucky runs to balance out and give a somewhat accurate expected value. Although you can consider that just one more win would have given me an expected value of €3.50 per match. So you can debate the exact value of this offer but its clearly positive expected value in the long run.
That was my betting pattern leading up to the bonus restrictions, I have a Paddy Power account as well with the same username and email. Bonus offers were removed from that back in February and betfair and Paddy Power are now the same company. I had some horse bets on the Grand National day and on Cheltenham week as well. Apart from those the pattern was just football correct scores on all the double odds offers. My Betfair account is decades old. I had no recent withdrawals - the latest was one month ago during Cheltenham festival. I don't use the betfair exchange at all which should send out the signal that I am not a matched bettor. I either lay my bets on smarkets or don't lay them at all (save commission and time). I hope that this gives some people some clues as to what patterns the bookies are looking out for in terms of restricting people that take to much value from their promotions.
Finally, this week I am recognising some of my followers, so big shout out to my number one follower Johnson. Thank you for your continued support.
Deeply appreciate these tips and strategies for online egames playing! Thanks Man!
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