Free Bets Review
So you read my article here before and were wondering how the strategy panned out.
I have posted the totals at the head of the below table, and continue scrolling for all the details. In 1 month I made a €100 total profit. Its not going to be enough to become a professional gambler, but I think most casual gamblers would be happy enough with that.
In total I staked €460 (23 bets @ €20 each), on the real bets I came out at a loss of €32.54 which is 7% of the total staked. From The Happy Medium article we can see that on average betting on even money favourites I would expect to lose about 4% of my stake. So I lost a little more than expected but not too much more.
This earned me €230 in free bets and I won €137.50 back. This is free money. This is roughly as expected. Most of our bets were at odds of on average about 5/2. The chart here indicates that we would expect to win back about 60c for every €1 at those odds in free bets. In this experiment I won back 59c per €1 staked so that's about right.
It's nice to see that my numbers roughly match the return that I theorised in the other articles.
I have posted the totals at the head of the below table, and continue scrolling for all the details. In 1 month I made a €100 total profit. Its not going to be enough to become a professional gambler, but I think most casual gamblers would be happy enough with that.
In total I staked €460 (23 bets @ €20 each), on the real bets I came out at a loss of €32.54 which is 7% of the total staked. From The Happy Medium article we can see that on average betting on even money favourites I would expect to lose about 4% of my stake. So I lost a little more than expected but not too much more.
This earned me €230 in free bets and I won €137.50 back. This is free money. This is roughly as expected. Most of our bets were at odds of on average about 5/2. The chart here indicates that we would expect to win back about 60c for every €1 at those odds in free bets. In this experiment I won back 59c per €1 staked so that's about right.
It's nice to see that my numbers roughly match the return that I theorised in the other articles.
| Date/Match | Bet | Stake | Odds | Potential Return | Potential Profit | After 5 mins | Result | Actual Profit | Real Bet Profit | Free Bet Profit |
| TOTALS -> | €104.96 | -€32.54 | €137.50 | |||||||
| 26/04/2015 | Man Utd | €20.00 | 21/20 | €41.00 | €21.00 | |||||
| Man Utd vs Everton | Draw | €5.00 | 12/5 | €12.00 | -€8.00 | |||||
| Everton | €5.00 | 6/5 | €6.00 | -€14.00 | 0 - 1 | 0 - 3 | -€14.00 | -€20.00 | €6.00 | |
| 26/04/2015 | Arsenal | €20.00 | 6/4 | €50.00 | €30.00 | |||||
| Arsenal vs Chelsea | Draw | €5.00 | 21/10 | €10.50 | -€9.50 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | -€9.50 | -€20.00 | €10.50 |
| Chelsea | €5.00 | 21/10 | €10.50 | -€9.50 | ||||||
| 29/04/2015 | Leicester | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | |||||
| Leicester vs Chelsea | Draw | €5.00 | 12/5 | €12.00 | -€8.00 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Chelsea | €20.00 | 3/4 | €35.00 | €15.00 | 1 - 3 | €15.00 | €15.00 | |||
| 02/05/2015 | Leicester | €20.00 | 10/11 | €38.18 | €18.18 | 1 - 0 | 3 - 0 | €18.18 | €18.18 | |
| Leicester vs Newcastle | Draw | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | |||||
| Newcastle | €5.00 | 17/2 | €42.50 | €22.50 | ||||||
| 02/05/2015 | Man Utd | €20.00 | 4/11 | €27.27 | €7.27 |
cashed out: bet didnt qualify (odds less than 1/2)
| -€3.49 | -€3.49 | ||
| Man Utd vs West Brom | Draw | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | |||||
| West Brom | €5.00 | 15/2 | €37.50 | €17.50 | ||||||
| 03/05/2015 | Over 2.5 | €20.00 | 4/6 | €33.33 | €13.33 | |||||
| Chelsea vs Palace | Under 2.5 | €5.00 | 11/10 | €5.00 | -€10.50 | 0 goals | 1 goal | -€10.50 | -€20.00 | €9.50 |
| Under 2.5 | €5.00 | evens | €4.50 | |||||||
| 03/05/2015 | Tottenham | €5.00 | 13/5 | €13.00 | -€7.00 | |||||
| Spurs vs Man City | Draw | €5.00 | 5/2 | €12.50 | -€7.50 | |||||
| Man City | €20.00 | 21/20 | €43.00 | €23.00 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 1 | €23.00 | €23.00 | ||
| 04/05/2015 | Hull | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | |||||
| Hull vs Arsenal | Draw | €5.00 | 5/2 | €12.50 | -€7.50 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Arsenal | €20.00 | 3/4 | €35.00 | €15.00 | 0 - 3 | €15.00 | €15.00 | |||
| 05/05/2015 | Juventus | €20.00 | 7/4 | €55.00 | €35.00 | 2 - 1 | €35.00 | €35.00 | ||
| Juve vs Real | Draw | €5.00 | 21/10 | €10.00 | -€10.00 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Real Madrid | €5.00 | 9/5 | €9.38 | -€10.62 | ||||||
| 06/05/2015 | Barcelona | €20.00 | 3/4 | €35.00 | €15.00 | 3 - 0 | €15.00 | €15.00 | ||
| Barca vs Bayern | Draw | €5.00 | 12/5 | €12.00 | -€8.00 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Bayern | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | ||||||
| 09/05/2015 | Everton | €20.00 | 4/5 | €36.00 | €16.00 | |||||
| Everton vs Sunderland | Draw | €5.00 | 13/5 | €13.00 | -€7.00 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Sunderland | €5.00 | 4/1 | €25.00 | €5.00 | 0 - 2 | €5.00 | -€20.00 | €25.00 | ||
| 09/05/2015 | Crystal Palace | €5.00 | 5/2 | €17.50 | -€2.50 | |||||
| Palace vs Man Utd | Draw | €5.00 | 12/5 | €12.00 | -€8.00 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Man Utd | €20.00 | 5/6 | €36.67 | €16.67 | 1 - 2 | €16.67 | €16.67 | |||
| 10/05/2015 | Man City - HT | €20.00 | 8/15 | €30.67 | €10.67 | 1 - 0 | 2 - 0 | €10.67 | €10.67 | |
| Man City vs QPR | Draw - HT | €5.00 | 17/2 | €42.50 | €22.50 | |||||
| QPR - HT | €5.00 | 55/1 | €275.00 | €255.00 | ||||||
| 10/05/2015 | Chelsea | €20.00 | evens | €40.00 | €20.00 | 1 - 0 | ||||
| Chelsea vs Liverpool | Draw | €5.00 | 7/2 | €17.50 | -€2.50 | 1 - 1 | -€2.50 | -€20.00 | €17.50 | |
| Liverpool | €5.00 | 17/2 | €42.50 | €22.50 | ||||||
| 11/05/2015 | Arsenal - HT | €20.00 | 4/6 | €33.33 | €13.33 | |||||
| Arsenal vs Swansea | Draw - HT | €5.00 | 13/10 | €6.50 | -€13.50 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | -€13.50 | -€20.00 | €6.50 |
| Swansea - HT | €5.00 | 13/2 | €32.50 | €12.50 | ||||||
| 12/05/2015 | Over2.5 goals | €20.00 | 4/7 | €31.43 | €11.43 | 5 goals | €11.43 | €11.43 | ||
| Bayern vs Barca | Under 2.5 goals | €10.00 | 5/4 | €12.00 | -€8.00 | 0 goals | ||||
| -€20.00 | ||||||||||
| 13/05/2015 | Real Madrid | €20.00 | 4/6 | €33.33 | €13.33 | |||||
| Real vs Juve | Draw | €5.00 | 7/2 | €17.50 | -€2.50 | 0 - 0 | 1 - 1 | -€2.50 | -€20.00 | €17.50 |
| Juventus | €5.00 | 7/2 | €17.50 | -€2.50 | ||||||
| 16/05/2015 | Southampton | €20.00 | 4/5 | €36.00 | €16.00 | 6 - 1 | €16.00 | €16.00 | ||
| Southampton vs Villa | Draw | €5.00 | 12/5 | €12.00 | -€8.00 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Aston Villa | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | ||||||
| 16/05/2015 | Liverpool - HT | €20.00 | 10/11 | €38.18 | €18.18 | |||||
| Liverpool vs Palace | Draw - HT | €5.00 | 13/10 | €6.50 | -€13.50 | 0 - 0 | 1 - 1 | -€13.50 | -€20.00 | €6.50 |
| Crystal Palace - HT | €5.00 | 11/2 | €27.50 | €7.50 | ||||||
| 17/05/2015 | Swansea | €5.00 | 7/2 | €17.50 | -€2.50 | |||||
| Swansea vs Man City | Draw | €5.00 | 3/1 | €13.75 | -€6.25 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Man City | €20.00 | 4/6 | €35.00 | €15.00 | 3 - 2 | €15.00 | €15.00 | |||
| 17/05/2015 | Man Utd | €20.00 | 13/8 | €52.50 | €32.50 | |||||
| Man Utd vs Arsenal | Draw | €5.00 | 23/10 | €11.50 | -€8.50 | 0 - 0 | 1 - 1 | -€8.50 | -€20.00 | €11.50 |
| Arsenal | €5.00 | 7/4 | €8.75 | -€11.25 | ||||||
| 18/05/2015 | West Brom | €5.00 | 4/1 | €20.00 | €0.00 | 3 - 0 | €0.00 | -€20.00 | €20.00 | |
| West Brom vs Chelsea | Draw | €5.00 | 5/2 | €12.50 | -€7.50 | 0 - 0 | ||||
| Chelsea | €20.00 | 10/11 | €38.18 | €18.18 | ||||||
| 20/05/2015 | Arsenal - HT | €20.00 | 4/6 | €33.33 | €13.33 | |||||
| Arsenal vs Sunderland | Draw - HT | €5.00 | 7/5 | €7.00 | -€13.00 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | -€13.00 | -€20.00 | €7.00 |
| Sunderland - HT | €5.00 | 8/1 | €40.00 | €20.00 | ||||||
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