Free Bet Promotions
Many online bookmakers now offer free bet promotions. They give you a free €2/€5 bet to encourage your custom (as a joining bonus or for placing bets).
The important thing to remember is that the stake is not returned in these bets - so ultimately they could be worthless to you.
This article explores the options for these bets and how to get the best value.
You can:
To compare strategies I have analysed 100,000+ match outcomes (Win-Draw-Win) and their odds. The data comes from football-data.co.uk augmented with odds recorded for all major european top flights from paddypower.ie for the current season.
You can see that by going for the hot shots at about 1/9 you would collect close to 10c on average. Looking into the detail I can see that the bookie had offered like 1/9, 1/10 or 1/11 on 107 times, and only 6 times they failed to win. So in this case it worked out that your €1 free bet ~= 9.7c real money.
The evens favourites offer better value for your free bets. The chart shows if you use your free bets on evens favourites then your €1 free bet ~= 47c real money. You win €1 roughly just short of half the time.
The curve peaks at about 12%-14% implied probability (this translates to about 7/1, 13/2 in odds). At these odds you are getting your best value with €1 free bet ~= 80c real money.
In the last couple of months we have seen Burnley beat Man City and draw with Chelsea. We have seen Rio Ave beat Benfica. Fiorentina have been beaten by both Cagliari and Verona. Shakhtar Donetsk slipped up and drew with Metalist. These were all paying out at about 7/1. In truth its only been a handful of positive outcomes for our 7/1's in the last few months. You will have to wait for your money but it will come. And €7 a pop will maximise your return from your free bets.
After this the data is sparse - you don't get many 50/1 shots in a Win-Draw-Win market. However from the data that we do have it seems like the value decreases for implied probability less than 12%.
Paddypower offered a free €2 bet for every time your pick for top scorer scored, if you back him at €20. With Sergio Aguero, I have now earned over €20 on the free bets. If/when he actually picks up the golden boot then that will just be a bonus.
Paddy Power are also offering a fantastic €10 of free in play bets if you place a €20 real money bet on specific matches. Its been quite a profitable promotion for me so far. I hope that they continue it to the end of the season.
Also, since I have been quite successful with accumulators this season I like the 888sports.com promotion for their Acca Club. You get a free €5 multiple bet if you place 3 real money €5 multiples in a week.
You can follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG, or on facebook /fog2014 for more tips like these.
The important thing to remember is that the stake is not returned in these bets - so ultimately they could be worthless to you.
This article explores the options for these bets and how to get the best value.
You can:
1. Bet on a sure fire winner, like Barcelona at home vs Eibar. This way you will almost surely convert your €1 free bet into about 10c.
2. Bet on an underdog, like Burnley vs Man City. This way you won't often win but when you do you can potentially have converted your €1 free bet into about €6 or €7.
3. Bet on some middle of the road matches, like Juventus vs Lazio. This way you will convert your €1 free bet into €1 real money almost half the time.
2. Bet on an underdog, like Burnley vs Man City. This way you won't often win but when you do you can potentially have converted your €1 free bet into about €6 or €7.
3. Bet on some middle of the road matches, like Juventus vs Lazio. This way you will convert your €1 free bet into €1 real money almost half the time.
To compare strategies I have analysed 100,000+ match outcomes (Win-Draw-Win) and their odds. The data comes from football-data.co.uk augmented with odds recorded for all major european top flights from paddypower.ie for the current season.
You can see that by going for the hot shots at about 1/9 you would collect close to 10c on average. Looking into the detail I can see that the bookie had offered like 1/9, 1/10 or 1/11 on 107 times, and only 6 times they failed to win. So in this case it worked out that your €1 free bet ~= 9.7c real money.
The evens favourites offer better value for your free bets. The chart shows if you use your free bets on evens favourites then your €1 free bet ~= 47c real money. You win €1 roughly just short of half the time.
The curve peaks at about 12%-14% implied probability (this translates to about 7/1, 13/2 in odds). At these odds you are getting your best value with €1 free bet ~= 80c real money.
In the last couple of months we have seen Burnley beat Man City and draw with Chelsea. We have seen Rio Ave beat Benfica. Fiorentina have been beaten by both Cagliari and Verona. Shakhtar Donetsk slipped up and drew with Metalist. These were all paying out at about 7/1. In truth its only been a handful of positive outcomes for our 7/1's in the last few months. You will have to wait for your money but it will come. And €7 a pop will maximise your return from your free bets.
After this the data is sparse - you don't get many 50/1 shots in a Win-Draw-Win market. However from the data that we do have it seems like the value decreases for implied probability less than 12%.
Paddypower offered a free €2 bet for every time your pick for top scorer scored, if you back him at €20. With Sergio Aguero, I have now earned over €20 on the free bets. If/when he actually picks up the golden boot then that will just be a bonus.
Paddy Power are also offering a fantastic €10 of free in play bets if you place a €20 real money bet on specific matches. Its been quite a profitable promotion for me so far. I hope that they continue it to the end of the season.
Also, since I have been quite successful with accumulators this season I like the 888sports.com promotion for their Acca Club. You get a free €5 multiple bet if you place 3 real money €5 multiples in a week.
You can follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG, or on facebook /fog2014 for more tips like these.
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