Euro 2016 Draw
So with the draw tomorrow I thought I would do a quick article.
I have rearranged the order of the teams (you will mostly see them ranked in order of UEFA Coefficient). The new order based on the bookie's rating of the teams makes it easier to pick out the soft draws. I also include the ELO Ranking as its usually regarded as a more accurate rank ahead of the FIFA Ranking or the UEFA Coefficient.
The bookie's make cart loads of cash and have banks of statistics to back up their odds so I tend to side with them when it comes to realistic ratings of the teams.
There are two things to notice here.
One. England have a 50-50 chance of getting one of the home nations of Ireland, N. Ireland and Wales.
Two. Apart from the top 9 sides, the bookie is giving the rest no more than a 2% chance of winning. Indeed I'm sure you would gets odds on that one of France, Spain or Germany will lift the trophy. The point is that outside a small minority of the teams the rest of the teams are much of a muchness.
So the group of Death for Ireland?
France/Germany
Italy
Sweden/Poland
Ireland.
And what will we be praying for?
Portugal
Switzerland
Hungary/Slovakia
Ireland.
Now that doesn't look half bad, but I would switch Portugal for Germany just to make sure that none of the other teams get a sneaky point or win against the top seed. And we know we can beat the Germans ourselves.
| Team | Bookie Rating | Elo Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Pot 1 | ||
| France | 7/2 | 8 |
| Germany | 7/2 | 1 |
| Spain | 5/1 | 4 |
| Belgium | 9/1 | 10 |
| England | 12/1 | 7 |
| Portugal | 18/1 | 11 |
| Pot 2 | ||
| Italy | 16/1 | 15 |
| Croatia | 25/1 | 17 |
| Austria | 40/1 | 21 |
| Russia | 66/1 | 24 |
| Ukraine | 66/1 | 16 |
| Switzerland | 80/1 | 18 |
| Pot 3 | ||
| Sweden | 66/1 | 27 |
| Poland | 66/1 | 24 |
| Czech Republic | 70/1 | 29 |
| Romania | 125/1 | 32 |
| Slovakia | 200/1 | 33 |
| Hungary | 200/1 | 41 |
| Pot 4 | ||
| Turkey | 66/1 | 19 |
| Wales | 66/1 | 45 |
| Iceland | 80/1 | 46 |
| Ireland | 100/1 | 26 |
| Albania | 300/1 | 60 |
| N. Ireland | 300/1 | 65 |
I have rearranged the order of the teams (you will mostly see them ranked in order of UEFA Coefficient). The new order based on the bookie's rating of the teams makes it easier to pick out the soft draws. I also include the ELO Ranking as its usually regarded as a more accurate rank ahead of the FIFA Ranking or the UEFA Coefficient.
The bookie's make cart loads of cash and have banks of statistics to back up their odds so I tend to side with them when it comes to realistic ratings of the teams.
There are two things to notice here.
One. England have a 50-50 chance of getting one of the home nations of Ireland, N. Ireland and Wales.
Two. Apart from the top 9 sides, the bookie is giving the rest no more than a 2% chance of winning. Indeed I'm sure you would gets odds on that one of France, Spain or Germany will lift the trophy. The point is that outside a small minority of the teams the rest of the teams are much of a muchness.
So the group of Death for Ireland?
France/Germany
Italy
Sweden/Poland
Ireland.
And what will we be praying for?
Portugal
Switzerland
Hungary/Slovakia
Ireland.
Now that doesn't look half bad, but I would switch Portugal for Germany just to make sure that none of the other teams get a sneaky point or win against the top seed. And we know we can beat the Germans ourselves.
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