Will Hill feeling Charitable

So William Hill are getting into the spirit of the Christmas Season. They are copying Paddy Power's promotion on the horses - giving money back as a free bet if your horse is second.

The key differences between the William Hill offer and Paddy Power is that William Hill are only giving money back on your first qualifying bet. With Paddy Power you could pick two or three horses per race and hedge your bets. 

The other major difference is that free bets dont earn free bets. With Paddy Power if your free bet runs in second then you got your free bet back again. With William Hill you will miss this opportunity.

I found this offer very profitable under Paddy Power, and despite the added limitations with William Hill's version I still plan on making money off this.

The new strategy will be.

1. Bet on the favourite in each race (provided he is 3/1 or under) - to earn money or a free bet if 2nd. 

2. With free bets back 9/2 horses.

See the table below based on an analysis of thousands of horse races this year.

The table reads for example: on the 100/1 horses we saw 3993 run in the races in our sample and 0.18% of them won, 0.38% were second. This would have given us an average loss of €20.57 per horse per €25 staked in real money. The free bets off the 2nd places would have earned us back 8c. This gives a total expected loss of €20.50 per race. Safe to say to stay away from the long shots.

Bookie Rating	Horses in Sample	P[Win]	P[2nd]	E[Real]	E[Free]	E[Total]
100/1	3993	0.18%	0.38%	-€    20.57	€      0.08	-€    20.50
80/1	575	0.70%	0.52%	-€    10.91	€      0.10	-€    10.81
66/1	5204	0.42%	1.11%	-€    17.92	€      0.22	-€    17.70
50/1	5583	0.84%	1.90%	-€    14.27	€      0.38	-€    13.89
40/1	3115	1.19%	2.63%	-€    12.83	€      0.53	-€    12.30
33/1	8767	1.53%	2.61%	-€    12.01	€      0.52	-€    11.49
28/1	1353	2.14%	4.36%	-€      9.46	€      0.87	-€      8.59
25/1	9343	2.34%	4.31%	-€      9.76	€      0.86	-€      8.90
22/1	1163	2.24%	4.56%	-€    12.15	€      0.91	-€    11.23
20/1	9496	3.38%	5.14%	-€      7.25	€      1.03	-€      6.23
18/1	1073	4.47%	6.15%	-€      3.75	€      1.23	-€      2.52
16/1	9832	4.43%	6.13%	-€      6.15	€      1.23	-€      4.93
14/1	7846	5.12%	7.56%	-€      5.79	€      1.51	-€      4.27
12/1	8175	5.69%	7.96%	-€      6.51	€      1.59	-€      4.92
11/1	2392	6.81%	8.44%	-€      4.56	€      1.69	-€      2.87
10/1	7532	7.37%	9.59%	-€      4.74	€      1.92	-€      2.82
9/1	3921	7.96%	10.92%	-€      5.11	€      2.18	-€      2.92
17/2	505	8.91%	11.29%	-€      3.84	€      2.26	-€      1.58
8/1	9148	9.04%	11.00%	-€      4.66	€      2.20	-€      2.46
15/2	1700	9.76%	11.59%	-€      4.25	€      2.32	-€      1.93
7/1	6299	10.57%	13.00%	-€      3.85	€      2.60	-€      1.25
13/2	2176	10.80%	12.91%	-€      4.75	€      2.58	-€      2.17
6/1	5229	12.09%	14.04%	-€      3.85	€      2.81	-€      1.04
11/2	3025	14.28%	14.98%	-€      1.79	€      3.00	€      1.20
5/1	5135	14.45%	15.17%	-€      3.33	€      3.03	-€      0.29
9/2	4696	16.35%	16.08%	-€      2.51	€      3.22	€      0.70
4/1	4690	17.65%	16.74%	-€      2.93	€      3.35	€      0.42
7/2	4088	19.15%	18.93%	-€      3.45	€      3.79	€      0.33
10/3	944	22.67%	19.28%	-€      0.44	€      3.86	€      3.41
3/1	3410	22.40%	18.91%	-€      2.60	€      3.78	€      1.19
11/4	2149	23.36%	20.99%	-€      3.10	€      4.20	€      1.10
5/2	2154	27.07%	20.52%	-€      1.32	€      4.10	€      2.79
9/4	1693	27.70%	21.32%	-€      2.49	€      4.26	€      1.77
2/1	1727	29.88%	23.51%	-€      2.59	€      4.70	€      2.11
15/8	685	30.66%	24.38%	-€      2.97	€      4.88	€      1.91
7/4	958	33.40%	23.49%	-€      2.04	€      4.70	€      2.66
6/4	755	35.63%	21.99%	-€      2.73	€      4.40	€      1.67
5/4	532	43.42%	21.80%	-€      0.58	€      4.36	€      3.79

It starts to get interesting at about 10/3 where you win real money 22% of your races and get a free bet 19%. In this range (unlike the long shots) you are not losing so much on your real money, and you are winning enough free bets to cancel out the loss and then some extra for yourself.

I am recommending the favourite if more than one horse is shorter than 3/1, but I think there is value on any horse under 3/1 so long as you're getting the free bet with it. So if you have a hunch on one of the horses or a trustworthy tip then feel free to go with that. So long as it's 3/1 or shorter.

The shorter the odds the better it gets - on most races it looks like you will be able to win around €2.50 from your €25 stake (about 10%). Today at Catterick I found 6 horses at 3/1 or shorter. So the strategy is roughly worth 6 * €2.50 per day, or €15. Not much but better in your pocket than the bookies. Over the month it could all add up to €450.

Very important to realise though that this is gambling. That is, you can lose, and I guarantee that on some days you will lose, and lose big. If your bankroll survives though and your luck evens out, then the figures above based on previous race results indicate that you will make some long term profits - estimated at €450 profit over the month.

This is based on betting the maximum €25 on each horse which will amount to over €100 per day. Do not bet €100 per day if you cannot afford to lose it. There is a chance that you will lose it all. Remember €25 is the max but the strategy works just the same if you bet €1 per race.