It started with Sergio Aguero for top scorer. For a €20 bet paddy power were offering a €2 free bet for each time he scored. It got me thinking that I could make my money back on the free €2 bets over the season (it would only take one 10/1 winning outcome). I could and should be in a position that I break even or make a small profit even if Aguero didn't finish top of the charts.

I progressed onto other offers, a similar one for the GAA All Ireland Championships and the Rugby World Cup. Free bets offered on the Premier League games and at certain horse racing meetings daily. All the time breaking even or close to it with my real money bets and winning big here and there on my free bets.

My emphasis was keeping risk to the minimum (betting on favourites all the time and very short odds like 1/2).

The big wins on the free bets built up €35 here, €50 there. The winnings cancelled out the small losses made on betting on favourites and then some. I slowly let my balance accumulate and was able to withdraw about €100 per month. See record of withdrawals below. Off one deposit of €20, I withdrew a total of €615 for a €595 profit.


This allowed me to book my return tickets for Canada, where I visit family regularly. See below, I also had money over to give me a little pocket money while there.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Deconstructing WDL and O/U 2.5 goals odds.

Input odds below (in decimal): Home Odds: Draw Odds: Away odds: Over 2.5 Odds: Calculate Params See also Elo Reverse Calculator . Dixon Coles Dixon Coles is a method of generating probabilities on football matches.  It is related to Poisson but adds a correlation for low scores.  It seems to be one of the most accurate public methods.  It requires three parameters lambda, mu and rho.  rho describes how related low scores are.  lambda and mu represent the average goals the home and away team are expected to score. In this calculator I have fixed rho = -0.13 (more info here  and here ) and I simply do a brute force search varying lambda and mu to find the values that has the lowest error from the Win Draw Lose and Over 2.5 odds entered.  I use the WDL odds and Over/Under odds as they are the most liquid betting markets and you can usually read a very accurate estimate for these off oddschecker or the exchange.   The soluti...
Read more

Chrome Extension 1000

Image
Donations now accepted If you have enjoyed using this extension and want to show your appreciation then click "Buy me a coffee" below, otherwise continue further down to read about our features! This started off as just a personal project.  I got full value from the effort that I put in already.   The effort included a few days coding initially and a day or two here or there to fix and add features, perhaps a full working week but fragmented all over the place.  In total it is now about 150 lines of code.   The reward was learning some javascript, learning about chrome extensions, earning some cred on twitter, and getting to connect with different people.  And of course I am actively using it and can identify potential betting opportunities myself. However surprisingly many have found it useful and some have asked for a way to say thanks.  So here it is. Feature Request (01 February 2024) - only available to manually install due to gambling exetn...
Read more

Elo Reverse Calculator

Image
Input odds below (in decimal): Home Odds: Draw Odds: Away odds: Calculate Params Elo Elo is simply a way of rating teams.  The ratings can be used to compare teams and generate probabilities for head to heads.  The probability one team will beat another is just a function of the difference in their rating. p = 1/(1+10^(-diff/400))  The tweet further below from ClubElo introduces another parameter r to take account of draws. Elo: The Hard Way The process is better described on eloratings.net  and clubelo.com .  If you visit these sites you can see it is quite complex.  Basically you initialise all teams to 1000 points for example.  Then you need a history of results and update each teams ratings depending if they win, lose or draw.  There are nuances to worry about, home field advantage, big wins, inter-league adjustments, k-factor weightings, etc. Elo: The Easy Way Say someone has already rated the teams, and also they have tak...
Read more