FoG

Here on FoG blog we have been watching the FIFA rankings.  They are rather meaningless for most years but they are used when it comes to seeding for the World Cup, and also the World Cup Qualifying.  We saw in 2014 World Cup how Italy suffered from dropping out of the top 8 seeds, and Switzerland benefited. The July release is now likely to decide the seeds for the European qualifying draw for World Cup 2018.  Up until now we have not had the exact release date.  However from checking the FIFA.com website today I can see the date will be July 9th.  The release date determines the cut off points for the FIFA ranking points. This is critical for teams like Netherlands and Germany and it means that their World Cup games versus Brazil and Argentina and all matches played on or after  9th July 2014 will have full weighting.  Netherlands beat Brazil in the third place play-off on 12 July 2014 which contributes 2364 points (3 * 4 * 197 * 1) to thei...

Its that time of the year again where the matches are going to come thick and fast, but before they do lets just take a breath and see where everyone  stands. You may have read that whenever Chelsea have been top at Christmas they have then gone on to win.  True?  Yes.  Meaningful?  No.   There are no prizes for being top at Christmas.   It is equally true that every season that Man Utd have been 3rd at Christmas they have gone on to win the Premier League (2002/03, 1998/99).   Top at Christmas has not always meant top in May. Fair enough it is somewhat of an achievement and a bit of a milestone in the season.  At the same time though its a stage of the season where you still haven't played every team.  And looking back in history Arsenal, Man Utd, Newcastle, Leeds, Aston Villa and Norwich have all been top at Christmas and failed to deliver the trophy.  Even as recently as last season Liverpool added their name to this li...

All fixtures are summarised below.  The matches are rated by difficulty based on outright odds of their opponents, and whether the match is home or away.  Hover over the match for some more details. Included also is the total number of home games played, and the total number of home games against the big 4 (Pats, Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers, Cork). The airtricity league is somewhat unique in that each team doesn't play equal home and away games.  To make up 33 matches each team plays the others 3 times, in some cases twice at home and once away, and in other cases vice versa.  It is possible that a team can have an advantage over the season by playing more home games over all or more home games against the tougher teams.  For example Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk, Pats and Cork only once away each, but twice at home. First Half team home games home vs top 4 Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6 Series 7 Series 8 Series 9 ...

The fixtures for the LoI were announced yesterday.  The full list by team can be found here . The two favourites (Shamrock Rovers and St. Pats) play out on the first day. Last years champs and runners up Dundalk and Cork don't have easy starts either.  They both face top teams in their first 4 matches.  Perhaps Dundalk have the easier start - although they have to face St Pats (favourites) on day 3.  The opportunity is there for another team to make their mark on the table in the first few weeks (Limerick maybe?). Drogheda avoid all of St. Pats, Shamrock Rovers, Cork and Dundalk in their first 6 matches.  This could mean a good start which could translate into some confidence and momentum which they will need.  They may be relegation contenders next season. If St. Pats are in contention at the end they may have a slight advantage in the run in.  Bohs, Galway, Drogheda and Longford are among the teams they play in the last 5 matches.  None ...

The last time before now that I was in any way invested in Sergio Aguero was when I had picked him for my fantasy football team in 2012/13.  He got injured on the first day of the season that time!   Now I am invested in him again after taking up Paddy Power on their top scorer promotion.  I have  € 20 on him at 6/1.  I have been collecting free  € 2 bets each time he scores and so far have made back  € 13.83 of the initial  € 20 on the winnings from these free bets.  But when Saturday came and news trickled in about his injury all those feelings from my failed fantasy team episode came rushing back. Paddy Power were quick to take down the market for top goal scorer while rumours and speculation played out about the extent of the injury.  They have finally put the market back up today (3 days later) and to my surprise the value of my investment has not fallen all that far.   EPL Top Scorer Betting Trend I am certainl...

As predicted by Mourinho Chelsea won't go the season unbeaten after losing on Saturday to Newcastle.  Since this is getting a bit of media attention mainly because of Mourinho's comments earlier in the season I have decided to write a quick article about it.  How was Mourinho so sure that he wouldn't remain undefeated, hadn't Arsenal achieved this before?  How likely is it anyway? Lets look back to 2003/04 to when Arsenal achieved the feat, only the second time in English football league top flight history after Preston Northend remained undefeated for all 22 league matches in 1888/89. See below Arsenal's run of undefeated matches along with the bookies' odds, implied probability and adjusted implied probability. Click to enlarge.  Full list of Arsenal's invincible season including odds. For example Arsenal were 3/2 to beat Liverpool on 4th Oct.  This translates to about 40% chance but I have also adjusted for the bookies edge.  Bookies probabi...

Chelsea are 6 points clear and in blistering form after scoring 3 against Tottenham.  But is 6 points after 14 games enough?  History would say no.  With only 9 teams that were top after 14 in the last 22 seasons actually finishing up top when all is said and done.  Just look at last year.  Man City were 6 points behind similar to right now, but only 3rd.  Last season they had both Chelsea and Arsenal to catch, and they did, with points to spare.   Of course this year could be like one of those 9 out of 22 seasons that did end up with top going on to be champions. Anyone following me on twitter will have seen my weekly updates and league tables from the archives to show that its not quite over yet. It begs the question, when is the table indicative of the final table? So I cross checked the tables after 15 rounds, 16 rounds, at Christmas etc against the final table.  And 9 out of the 22 seasons, or 10 out of the 22 seasons the toppers wen...