Ireland vs Poland

The competition this evening wasn't if we could beat Gibraltar (this was a 1/100 foregone conclusion according to the bookies), the competition here was if we could beat Poland's score of 7-0 against the group minnows.  4-0 at 9/2 was the most likely outcome at the bookies.  The 7-0 target was a little longer at 17/2.  In the end Ireland easily made the 7-0 with enough to spare.  After the 7th goal on 56 minutes they had the luxury of withdrawing a number of first team players, perhaps with an eye to the midweek match with Germany.

 The result did little for Ireland's chances for qualification for Euro 2016.  A win was expected and needed.  However results elsewhere hurt our chances especially with Poland beating Germany.

 Both the top team and the second team qualify for the Euro 2016.  The betting trend shows that Ireland lost ground today on the likes of Poland for top spot and presumably runner up spot - but only slightly.  Ireland's odds to qualify lengthened from 4/6 (roughly implies a 60% chance) to 10/11 (roughly implies a 52% chance).  


Also in the competition for ranking points the result is meaningless for Ireland.  If anything playing Gibraltar hurt Ireland's rankings.  Gibraltar matches are not yet recognised by FIFA and so don't count towards the FIFA rankings.  With the match against Germany on the horizon it looks unlikely that Ireland will improve their ranking points at all on this international break.  I expect Ireland to drop this month.

 As discussed in previous articles, the FIFA rankings are mostly meaningless except for a couple of times every four years, first for the seedings in the World Cup Qualification and then second for the World Cup Draw itself.  This year is the lead up to the draw for the qualification so the rankings points take extra significance.  To slip into Pot 4 would mean that Ireland could be drawn in a group containing three stronger nations for example Germany, England and Sweden.  If they could somehow claw their way into Pot 2 then it would eliminate the possibility of being drawn against a second level side like Ukraine, England, Czech Republic and Russia who are currently the next best teams ranked outside the top 9 european countries.

 Below is the current interim standings in the FIFA rankings including the Friday and Saturday internationals.





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