Colossus Tips
Colossus Bet offer a variety of Pools competitions where you predict the scores or outcomes of a number of matches. The correct predictions win or share the pool. I previously developed a strategy and wrote an article on it here.
My strategy has been performing okay on the headline €10,000,000 Jackpot. I have tracked my predictions against the experts predictions as published on the Colossus Blog. You will find a record of my predictions on twitter @FoG_BLoG.
The strength of my simple predictions is that it gives you more value for money, often recording the same number or more correct predictions than the experts but for a tiny fraction of the cost. For example the total cost of Michael Owen's multi-line predictions last week was €432. My single line prediction set me back €2.
The previous three weeks Colossus Bets have gone down like this:
As you can see, my FoG single line predictions have been performing on a par and even on occassion clearly better than the experts' multi-line picks. My total percentage accuracy has been higher than all the Colossus Blog resident experts every week.
With that in mind, here are some of the common pitfalls that my scientific and emotionless strategy is sure to avoid. (Full details of my strategy are here).
Gamblers Falacy
Man Utd have had a run of bad luck, they are due some luck. Luck doesn't balance out like that. Imagine you toss three heads in a row - on a fair coin the next toss is still 50-50. The same is true if a team is on a "hot" streak. The match is decided during the 90 minutes, previous luck/results have little or no influence on the outcome.
Patternicity
1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1 looks like an unlikely list of weekend results. 1-1 (with 1-0) is by far the most frequently occurring scoreline in the premier league. Human brains see patterns in the weekly result list and try to replicate something that "looks" like realistic results by throwing in a couple of high scoring matches and one or two away wins: 1-0, 0-2, 4-1, 1-1, 1-1. This is similar to the lotto and why people probably wouldn't pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 because something random like 4, 18, 22, 36, 37 "looks" more like the winning numbers. Imagine if someone told you that balls 1-6 were a little heavier and hence more likely to come out then you would pick them each week.
I am telling you that 1-1 is the most common scoreline to occur. If you think its going to be a close match go for a 1-1 every time.
Availability Heuristic
Recent events live bigger in the memory than events from months ago and can unduly influence your predictions. It's easy to remember Arsenal faltering against Spurs, Everton, Man City and Leicester. However it is still the team that shot to the top of the Premier League early last season, and beat Man City 3-0 in the charity shield this season. Ozil, Mertesacker and Podolski are still the players that picked up a World Cup winner's medal in the summer. They won't roll over for Chelsea.
AOH, AOA
A 3-0 prediction can be easily spoiled when the favourite, so far ahead, has a lapse of concentration and allows a consolation goal. Results like 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 are quite rare on their own. AOH is immune to the consolation goal, it covers 4-1, 4-0, 4-2, 4-3, 5-1, 5-2, 5-3 which alone are a little more unlikely than the 3-x scorelines but combined at least 3 times more likely than 3-2 and twice as likely as 3-1 or 3-0. If you think its going to be a one sided match or a high scoring match, you would be better going for an AOH over any of the 3-x scorelines.
Just look at the results above, there have been four AOH's and only one 3-1. There are no 3-0 or 3-2 home wins in the last 3 weeks of Colossus matches.
User Interface
Beware of the 2-0 and the 3-0 buttons which are more centrally located presumably to tempt you into picking these unlikely scorelines. More often than not you would be better passing over these options for maybe a 2-1 or 3-1 instead. Or as mentioned above, keep going all the way to the AOH option.
Use promo code when joining to get first 72 hours of bets matched with free bets (up to £100). Promo Code: RAFNAS13L0
My strategy has been performing okay on the headline €10,000,000 Jackpot. I have tracked my predictions against the experts predictions as published on the Colossus Blog. You will find a record of my predictions on twitter @FoG_BLoG.
The strength of my simple predictions is that it gives you more value for money, often recording the same number or more correct predictions than the experts but for a tiny fraction of the cost. For example the total cost of Michael Owen's multi-line predictions last week was €432. My single line prediction set me back €2.
The previous three weeks Colossus Bets have gone down like this:
With that in mind, here are some of the common pitfalls that my scientific and emotionless strategy is sure to avoid. (Full details of my strategy are here).
Gamblers Falacy
Man Utd have had a run of bad luck, they are due some luck. Luck doesn't balance out like that. Imagine you toss three heads in a row - on a fair coin the next toss is still 50-50. The same is true if a team is on a "hot" streak. The match is decided during the 90 minutes, previous luck/results have little or no influence on the outcome.
Patternicity
1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1 looks like an unlikely list of weekend results. 1-1 (with 1-0) is by far the most frequently occurring scoreline in the premier league. Human brains see patterns in the weekly result list and try to replicate something that "looks" like realistic results by throwing in a couple of high scoring matches and one or two away wins: 1-0, 0-2, 4-1, 1-1, 1-1. This is similar to the lotto and why people probably wouldn't pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 because something random like 4, 18, 22, 36, 37 "looks" more like the winning numbers. Imagine if someone told you that balls 1-6 were a little heavier and hence more likely to come out then you would pick them each week.
I am telling you that 1-1 is the most common scoreline to occur. If you think its going to be a close match go for a 1-1 every time.
Availability Heuristic
Recent events live bigger in the memory than events from months ago and can unduly influence your predictions. It's easy to remember Arsenal faltering against Spurs, Everton, Man City and Leicester. However it is still the team that shot to the top of the Premier League early last season, and beat Man City 3-0 in the charity shield this season. Ozil, Mertesacker and Podolski are still the players that picked up a World Cup winner's medal in the summer. They won't roll over for Chelsea.
AOH, AOA
A 3-0 prediction can be easily spoiled when the favourite, so far ahead, has a lapse of concentration and allows a consolation goal. Results like 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 are quite rare on their own. AOH is immune to the consolation goal, it covers 4-1, 4-0, 4-2, 4-3, 5-1, 5-2, 5-3 which alone are a little more unlikely than the 3-x scorelines but combined at least 3 times more likely than 3-2 and twice as likely as 3-1 or 3-0. If you think its going to be a one sided match or a high scoring match, you would be better going for an AOH over any of the 3-x scorelines.
Just look at the results above, there have been four AOH's and only one 3-1. There are no 3-0 or 3-2 home wins in the last 3 weeks of Colossus matches.
User Interface
Beware of the 2-0 and the 3-0 buttons which are more centrally located presumably to tempt you into picking these unlikely scorelines. More often than not you would be better passing over these options for maybe a 2-1 or 3-1 instead. Or as mentioned above, keep going all the way to the AOH option.
Use promo code when joining to get first 72 hours of bets matched with free bets (up to £100). Promo Code: RAFNAS13L0
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