English Premier League vs German Bundesliga
The midweek Champions League games have been dominated with English clubs versus German clubs. This gives us a chance to get an insight into the relative strengths and strength in dept of both leagues.
On the face of it the Bundesliga is dominated by Bayern Munich who are streets ahead of the likes of Dortmund, Leverkusen and Schalke. The Premier League this year is emerging with the strong two of Chelsea and Man City, followed by a pack of three Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool. The gap between the top 5 in the Premier League would appear to be much smaller than the gap between the top three German sides (Leverkusen are 18/1 and third favourite to win the Bundesliga outright, while even the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal are much shorter odds at 12/1 for the equivalent bet in England).
Recent articles have focused strongly on bookie's odds. We will continue that theme today.
So what can the bookie's odds tell us about the big question on EPL vs BL? How do the bookie's think the teams compare.
Schalke = Swansea
Start with the Chelsea vs Schalke match. Chelsea were 1/3 to win this and so will be very disappointed with the draw. They were the only English home team in the Champions League this week so were in with the best chance of winning. Lets forget about the results though for a while. You get nowhere with arguments like my team beat that team 2-0 and that team beat your team 2-0 so my team would beat your team 4-0. No lets focus on what the football experts think of the match ups. As mentioned Chelsea were 1/3 at home. This drops Schalke in among the likes of Swansea. Chelsea were 10/3 last weekend at home to the Swans and at the end of last season they were precisely the same odds as against Schalke at 1/3. The bookies think that Schalke are the same calibre of opposition to Chelsea at home as Swansea City are.
Dortmund = Liverpool
Next up Dortmund vs Arsenal. In this one Arsenal were 11/4 away from home. In the Premier League Arsenal have been pretty dominant away from home so would not have been used to such long odds. The closest I can see is the match against Liverpool where they were 12/5. This suggests that Dortmund rank about even with Liverpool in the bookies markets. This is also reflected in the Champions League outright odds. Liverpool currently 20/1 Dortmund 25/1. In Germany Dortmund are virtually guaranteed a top two finish. Liverpool will fight it out between Man Utd and Arsenal for a Champions League spot. Indeed Liverpool hadn't made that Champions League spot for 5 years until last year.
Bayern > Chelsea, Man City
Finally in the Champions League Bayern vs Man City. 15/4 for Man City in this tie was way out of the ordinary for City. Even away from home City are usually odds on against most Premier League opponents. The longest odds they have faced recently was at Chelsea last season where they were 11/5. This is still noticeably shorter than the odds they had to attempt to overcome at Bayern. The bookies are rating Bayern as stronger opponents than any team in England.
Wolfsburg = Moyes's Man Utd
Then not to forget the Europa League and Everton vs Wolfsburg. Everton were 23/20 favourites to win at home. Everton have already played Chelsea and Arsenal this season and were considerably longer odds (11/4 and 9/5) at home on both those occasions. I suppose though that their 7/5 label against Moyes's Man Utd in the run in last season roughly equates to their 23/20. This puts Wolfsburg almost on a par with Moyes's Man Utd. Leaving them good enough for maybe a 7th place finish if they played in the Premier League where as they are likely to almost make the top 4 in Germany.
With the Everton scoreline and the Chelsea result some people might be quick to say that the bookies were wrong. But if the bookies ever are regularly wrong then there would be alot of rich punters out there. So I would put some weight behind the bookies opinion.
It should be mentioned that home field advantage probably counts for more in European ties. This probably distorts the picture somewhat - underrating the teams that played away from home (Schalke, Wolfsburg, City and Arsenal).
On the face of it the Bundesliga is dominated by Bayern Munich who are streets ahead of the likes of Dortmund, Leverkusen and Schalke. The Premier League this year is emerging with the strong two of Chelsea and Man City, followed by a pack of three Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool. The gap between the top 5 in the Premier League would appear to be much smaller than the gap between the top three German sides (Leverkusen are 18/1 and third favourite to win the Bundesliga outright, while even the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal are much shorter odds at 12/1 for the equivalent bet in England).
Recent articles have focused strongly on bookie's odds. We will continue that theme today.
So what can the bookie's odds tell us about the big question on EPL vs BL? How do the bookie's think the teams compare.
Schalke = Swansea
Start with the Chelsea vs Schalke match. Chelsea were 1/3 to win this and so will be very disappointed with the draw. They were the only English home team in the Champions League this week so were in with the best chance of winning. Lets forget about the results though for a while. You get nowhere with arguments like my team beat that team 2-0 and that team beat your team 2-0 so my team would beat your team 4-0. No lets focus on what the football experts think of the match ups. As mentioned Chelsea were 1/3 at home. This drops Schalke in among the likes of Swansea. Chelsea were 10/3 last weekend at home to the Swans and at the end of last season they were precisely the same odds as against Schalke at 1/3. The bookies think that Schalke are the same calibre of opposition to Chelsea at home as Swansea City are.
Dortmund = Liverpool
Next up Dortmund vs Arsenal. In this one Arsenal were 11/4 away from home. In the Premier League Arsenal have been pretty dominant away from home so would not have been used to such long odds. The closest I can see is the match against Liverpool where they were 12/5. This suggests that Dortmund rank about even with Liverpool in the bookies markets. This is also reflected in the Champions League outright odds. Liverpool currently 20/1 Dortmund 25/1. In Germany Dortmund are virtually guaranteed a top two finish. Liverpool will fight it out between Man Utd and Arsenal for a Champions League spot. Indeed Liverpool hadn't made that Champions League spot for 5 years until last year.
Bayern > Chelsea, Man City
Finally in the Champions League Bayern vs Man City. 15/4 for Man City in this tie was way out of the ordinary for City. Even away from home City are usually odds on against most Premier League opponents. The longest odds they have faced recently was at Chelsea last season where they were 11/5. This is still noticeably shorter than the odds they had to attempt to overcome at Bayern. The bookies are rating Bayern as stronger opponents than any team in England.
Wolfsburg = Moyes's Man Utd
Then not to forget the Europa League and Everton vs Wolfsburg. Everton were 23/20 favourites to win at home. Everton have already played Chelsea and Arsenal this season and were considerably longer odds (11/4 and 9/5) at home on both those occasions. I suppose though that their 7/5 label against Moyes's Man Utd in the run in last season roughly equates to their 23/20. This puts Wolfsburg almost on a par with Moyes's Man Utd. Leaving them good enough for maybe a 7th place finish if they played in the Premier League where as they are likely to almost make the top 4 in Germany.
With the Everton scoreline and the Chelsea result some people might be quick to say that the bookies were wrong. But if the bookies ever are regularly wrong then there would be alot of rich punters out there. So I would put some weight behind the bookies opinion.
It should be mentioned that home field advantage probably counts for more in European ties. This probably distorts the picture somewhat - underrating the teams that played away from home (Schalke, Wolfsburg, City and Arsenal).
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