Buy low, sell high
For each team there are bound to be many peaks and troughs throughout the season. This strategy is to back teams when they are down - when their odds are long. It takes guts but can pay off.
It will be important to be able to anticipate when a team's odds will lengthen or shorten. For example it may have been worth waiting till now to back Man City. They were to face Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in their first 5 matches. It was always likely that they would drop some points over that period and hence their odds would lengthen. The result is that you can get them at better value now than compared to the start of the season.
Lets have a look at this strategy in practice. The graph below charts the rise and fall of the 5 premier league favourites. As you can see there has already been quite a bit of movement over just the first 5 matches. Marked on the chart is the longest odds over the first weeks for each team.
Arsenal dropped to 14/1 after their 1-1 draw with Leicester on Aug 31. Liverpool (25/1) and Man Utd (14/1) are currently at their lowest troughs after both teams failed to impress last weekend, Utd vs Leicester and Liverpool vs West Ham. City fell to 7/2 after their failure to win at Arsenal on Sep 13 (this was a week after their home defeat to Stoke). Chelsea dipped to 2/1 before a ball was kicked in anger, perhaps reflecting some of the anticipation building for Arsenal after their charity shield win and the hype over Arsenal's trio of German World Cup Champions. Arsenal's odds had been shortening on the run up to the season opening weekend.
If you managed to time your bets perfectly then you could have got all these teams at the above prices. The table (right) shows how you could have proportioned your bets to guarantee a €21.54 profit with a total stake of €57.44 (roughly 29% Return on Investment). Now unless you had a time machine you can not know when is the time to back the team. However as said before you need to show some guts and back a team when they are on a losing streak, this is when you will get them at their longest odds. It is certainly also possible to scan ahead the fixture lists, keep an eye on the injuries tables and otherwise predict when a team's price is going to lengthen or shorten in the short term.
Its not too late. Man City are at a low at the moment points-wise because of their tough start, you can still get them at 3/1 which in my opinion is good value. Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool are not totally out of it so worth putting a small insurance bet on those three right now.
The question is when to strike on Chelsea? Are they going to have a dip in form? Are they nailed on to win now? If we saw them fall off the top of the table for just one week their odds would dip low enough again so that a correctly proportioned bet would guarantee an overall profit (around 2/1 or if we could get them at evens).
Have a look at the listing by season - giving the top team after 5 games and their final league finishing position that season. It's surprisingly uncommon that the team on top at this stage of the season has actually gone on to win. It has happened just 5 times out of the 21 seasons listed on the left. That gives us a good indication that Chelsea will slip, we probably will find them at evens or at 2/1 before the end of the season. Even of those 5 teams that did go on to win, Man Utd in 93/94 and Chelsea in 05/06 were the only ones that remained top of the table all the way through to May. For example in 1999/00 Man Utd were top after five matches but slipped to 4th in Oct before making up the ground again and winning it outright. A small slip like this for Chelsea would give us the odds that we need to guarantee our strategy's success.
So there is potential to put a small stake (about €3- €5) on Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal now. Also back Man City right now with about €20. Then wait. When Chelsea fall to evens slap €30 on. I do think it is a question of "when" rather than "if" going by past league tables. Under that scenario you will have guaranteed yourself a small profit.
Follow me on twitter @davidheaney1978 or read my blog on http://fog2014.blogspot.ie for more tips and stats.
It will be important to be able to anticipate when a team's odds will lengthen or shorten. For example it may have been worth waiting till now to back Man City. They were to face Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea in their first 5 matches. It was always likely that they would drop some points over that period and hence their odds would lengthen. The result is that you can get them at better value now than compared to the start of the season.
Lets have a look at this strategy in practice. The graph below charts the rise and fall of the 5 premier league favourites. As you can see there has already been quite a bit of movement over just the first 5 matches. Marked on the chart is the longest odds over the first weeks for each team.
odds movement tracked by date for the 5 premier league favourites
Arsenal dropped to 14/1 after their 1-1 draw with Leicester on Aug 31. Liverpool (25/1) and Man Utd (14/1) are currently at their lowest troughs after both teams failed to impress last weekend, Utd vs Leicester and Liverpool vs West Ham. City fell to 7/2 after their failure to win at Arsenal on Sep 13 (this was a week after their home defeat to Stoke). Chelsea dipped to 2/1 before a ball was kicked in anger, perhaps reflecting some of the anticipation building for Arsenal after their charity shield win and the hype over Arsenal's trio of German World Cup Champions. Arsenal's odds had been shortening on the run up to the season opening weekend.
If you managed to time your bets perfectly then you could have got all these teams at the above prices. The table (right) shows how you could have proportioned your bets to guarantee a €21.54 profit with a total stake of €57.44 (roughly 29% Return on Investment). Now unless you had a time machine you can not know when is the time to back the team. However as said before you need to show some guts and back a team when they are on a losing streak, this is when you will get them at their longest odds. It is certainly also possible to scan ahead the fixture lists, keep an eye on the injuries tables and otherwise predict when a team's price is going to lengthen or shorten in the short term.Its not too late. Man City are at a low at the moment points-wise because of their tough start, you can still get them at 3/1 which in my opinion is good value. Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool are not totally out of it so worth putting a small insurance bet on those three right now.
The question is when to strike on Chelsea? Are they going to have a dip in form? Are they nailed on to win now? If we saw them fall off the top of the table for just one week their odds would dip low enough again so that a correctly proportioned bet would guarantee an overall profit (around 2/1 or if we could get them at evens).
Have a look at the listing by season - giving the top team after 5 games and their final league finishing position that season. It's surprisingly uncommon that the team on top at this stage of the season has actually gone on to win. It has happened just 5 times out of the 21 seasons listed on the left. That gives us a good indication that Chelsea will slip, we probably will find them at evens or at 2/1 before the end of the season. Even of those 5 teams that did go on to win, Man Utd in 93/94 and Chelsea in 05/06 were the only ones that remained top of the table all the way through to May. For example in 1999/00 Man Utd were top after five matches but slipped to 4th in Oct before making up the ground again and winning it outright. A small slip like this for Chelsea would give us the odds that we need to guarantee our strategy's success.So there is potential to put a small stake (about €3- €5) on Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal now. Also back Man City right now with about €20. Then wait. When Chelsea fall to evens slap €30 on. I do think it is a question of "when" rather than "if" going by past league tables. Under that scenario you will have guaranteed yourself a small profit.
Follow me on twitter @davidheaney1978 or read my blog on http://fog2014.blogspot.ie for more tips and stats.
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