Market Watch: Premier League Outright

There are some markets appearing now for Premier League 2023/24 Outrights so we decided to take a look.

Often the most accurate prediction is the exchange, but at this early stage and with only a small amount of money matched (Matched:EUR 19,816) there could be some inconsistencies.  As a comparison I also had developed a market implied rating from the closing line match day odds here.

So my approach was:

1. Assume the outright exchange odds represent a probability of winning a 38 match league.

2. According to the exchange ranking assign all teams from the favourite to the underdog a rating 1190 down to 810 in steps of 20.  The standard "average" elo rating is 1000 so its centred on this but we already know the top teams in the market are better so hopefully initialising the ratings this way will speed up convergence.

3. Run a full season sim based on these assigned elo ratings. 

4. Compare to the exchange outright odds and adjust the teams elo rating up or down accordingly.  So if the team performed better in the sim than the odds expect then downgrade their rating and vice versa.

5. Repeat 4 & 5 until we converge with the market.

The result:

Table1: The elo ratings that converge with the market implied odds

The new outright market implied elo rating in comparison to my match odds implied rating is interesting for a number of teams.  You can see the match day odds implied ratings here and note that they are a few weeks old.  I didn't update them towards the end of the season as I consider the last few weeks with some teams with nothing to play for are not a fair reflection.

Man City.  The latest match day rating I took for this was 1271, the outright implied elo is about 50 points down.  The market pricing in the threat of FFP punishment?  Have Man City hit a proverbial glass ceiling where it easier for clubs around them to close the gap than for them to keep improving?  Does uncertainty favour the underdogs?  With months to go to the season and so many unknown signings etc does this uncertainty dampen the favourites odds?

Liverpool/Arsenal. Small downgrade for both these teams of 20 points about. I've seen fluctuations like that from week to week depending on team selections, injuries and form.  So this is reasonable.

Man Utd. Man Utd recieve a big enough upgrade in the outright implied elo ratings table.  Up from 1076 to 1120.  Plenty of rumours that Utd are poised to splash the cash.  The market will need to price in the chance of the arrival of some big name players like Kane etc.  But historically one of the strongest bet teams in the outright, is public money skewing the market?

Chelsea. These differences are getting harder to explain now.  Chelsea are getting the biggest upgrade of all the teams its seems from 1023 up to 1105.  The match day closing odds may be a little irrelevant in Chelsea's case though as they were not in the hunt for any major trophies or CL places.  They may have taken their foot off the gas a long time ago.  A rich club with a history of spending too so are likely to go into the transfer market this summer as well.

Tottenham. So if Utd are getting an upgrade for the possibility of a Kane arrival, then Spurs likely downgraded because of the possibility he departs?  No, they've climbed from 1011 to 1048.  Presumably even if Kane does depart, they will get a decent fee from Utd for him that they will be able to spend wisely.  Another club as well where their match day ratings may have not been playing to 100% as had so little to play for.

Brentford. Toney will be missing for Brentford for the first months of the season, but the outright implied rating is almost exactly the same as their match odds implied rating 989 v 986.  Will Toney be missed?

Brighton. This is the interesting one for me.  Their match odds implied rating of 1095 may have been inflated as they were undoubtly playing at 110% to make European competition - a huge achievement for this club.  The outright implied rating drops them to 1048.  Is the squad not capable of fighting on multiple fronts?  Are Mac Allister and other key players set to leave?  It is a stark contrast though when you look at the Neutral Venue market odds just a few weeks ago for the FA Cup Semi Final at Wembley.

Its hard to square it up in my mind that these teams are now about 10.0 (and edging up to 2nd favourtie) vs 80.0 (ie almost written off before it starts) to win next Season's League.

Newcastle. Newcastle's outright implied rating is consistent with their match odds implied rating.  Unlike Brighton, they surely have more money to spend and will be able to stabilise their position.  A quick exit from the Champions League will clear their calendar so that they won't have as bad fixture congestion as Brighton who hope to have a deep forray into the Europa League.

Inconsistencies. So maybe looking at things in this way we can identifiy some inconsistencies like I try to above.  Usually match day odds will be far more accurate than outright odds, but at the same time I wouldn't take the Outright Premier League odds lightly - and where there are inconsistencies it is possible to construct a narrative to explain it away.  So you need to be fairly confident.

Dont follow my advice, I don't make money on Outrights, but having a small fun experimental bet on Brighton and Man City.  If numbers move my way, it may give a bit more confidence to have a couple more wagers based on this kind of analysis.

More than just the outrights.

I suppose though the power of producing the ratings above is that I can now price up more than just the win outright based on my simulations.  

Table 2: The outright implied ratings used to simulate the full season including relegation, top 4 and select other markets

Note here though (BIG Warning) there is nearly no information on the relative strengths of the relegation contenders in the outright market, they are all just priced >1000.0.  So definitely don't be using this analysis to bet into the relegation markets.  The different ratings of the last 4 or 5 teams will be just down to the luck of the sims or the way the ratings were initialised.

Note also that there can be some different dynamics going on here that the win outright will bias the other markets.  Different teams will have a different range of outcomes.  It could mean that some stable/consistent teams will have a better chance of top 4 finish than my analsis implies.  And the teams gambling in the transfer market may get a superstar or a flop so may have a great season or a poor season and very little chance of anything in between.

PS. There is a person reading this laughing at how seriously I have taken the outright markets.  Sneering to himself "All it is, is the bookies have taken their last season market and made couple of finger in the air adjustments, and so far the exchange doesn't have an opinion of its own, its just following the early bookie markets.  The true greats dont inform the market until the fixture lists are out at least and they wont go near it for pennies which is all that is there right now".  And he may be right, but at this time for me, they are still likely to be more accurate than most people's models and certainly anything that I can model, so I am running with it!