Handinaps - Expert and Market watch

We all know that a good bet can lose and a bad bet can win.  I am trying to track the good picks for the Handinaps Competition Races based on Expert opinions, and market opinion.


Meet the Experts

Starsports trader Flynn Goward made a market for the overall winner before the start of the first race.  These are the entrants that he put top of the market.  I respect his opinion and the opinions of all below.  

Each race I will compare the distribution of their picks to the rest of us guessers.

RowleyfileRRR - Freelance racing & betting writer, analyst & forecaster. Form, time & sectional ratings. ATR regular, HBF. #BettingPeople Interview. Business of Betting Interview.

davidjohnsontf - Horseracing mainly, sometimes running. Flat Editor for @Timeform. Occasionally heard/seen on @SportingLife.

drankfrebin - Steve Wilson pro punter/consultant.

jamesaknight - Racing Trader Director at Entain.

tony_calvin - Racing journalist/tipster, podcast.

trendhorses - Andrew Mount Daily columns for GG.co.uk & SportsLens.com, Will Hill Radio pundit, RFO & Weekender columnist. #BettingPeople Interview.

cdixon82 - Broadcaster & analyst for @RacingTV. Race planner @omeararacing. Agent for @Jason7Watson1 & @CierenFallonJr. Owner/syndicate manager @horsewatchers1.

helynsar - Rory Delargy journalist/tipster The Irish Field.

ChrisPoole__ - Director of Trading at BetVictor.

CraigForsyth_ - Horse Racing, Broadcaster on William Hill Radio.

carvillshill - Horse punter.

junioranalyst11 - Punter.

AKBets87 - Pro punter and course bookie. #BettingPeople Inteview. BashCast Interview. Trademate Sports Interview. Trademate Sports Q&A.

GaryNewson1 - Racecourse bookmaker.

colinhord - Horseracing Bettors Forum Chair

matthewrushton1 - Head of Compliance at BetConnect. The BarStewards Enquiry Guest.

nickgoff79 - Pro punter. #BettingPeople Interview 2018. #BettingPeople Interview 2022.

ricktrigg1984 - grosvenor casino sponsored poker player


The Market

The market amalgamates all this expert opinion (assuming the experts are betting into the market or making their own markets).  You can also have good inside information fed into the markets as well.  It is often held as the most accurate estimate of the probabilities for each horse. 

With this we can compare the ISP vs the BSP to check the Expected Value (EV) of each horse.

For Handinaps for each way betting the terms are always 1/4, 4 places.  The BSP place is always the standard place, which sometimes is just 3 places.  In this case we can't compare like to like.  To estimate the EV of the place part I use a basic calculation.  Assume 2nd 3rd and 4th places are all equally likely, then the P[top 4] = P[top 3] + (P[top 3] - P[Win])/2.  So in this way we can use the BSP 3TBP market to estimate the EV even for 4 places.

Also interesting to watch the market for movers.  The deadline for the handinap competition is usually midday.  Betfair publish a Morning Weighted Average Price.  I can check if the price moved in your favour.  This is usually a good sign and there is an argument that some steamers have not even finished steaming at SP.  So there could be value in these.

Market Picks

I am tracking the top 2 picks based on the EV to see how it pans out.  See below.








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