Restrictions, Account Closures. Why they are good for you.

We all get frustrated when we find a nice little edge at a soft book and get restricted or closed.  I certainly did.  I've definitely learned a lot since.  And that is the point.  Its all about learning.

I think of it as betting school now. You start your education in Junior Infants/Kindergarten.  Your teacher sets a book - copies the market prices, can move the odds depending on action too.  You are four years old.  If Bill Benter is in your class you never win, all the money eventually ends up in his pocket (and a small margin in the teachers).  Its a zero sum game and the bookie is just the middle man.  You stay bottom of your class, you never progress.

The beauty though is he is not in your class, he has graduated Junior Infants a long time ago.  He doesn't have access to a bet365 account.  You can win in this limited market, you can learn, you can increase your motivation, you can build your bank roll.

I had spent far too long muddling about on bet365 on small stakes.  You can still do okay at the soft books on small stakes, grinding out a few hundred at the big events.  Junior Infants is fun and easy, you get nap time every day. However, the best thing that happened me was when they zero-ed my account completely.  It forced me out of my comfort zone and pushed me to look for more sustainable opportunities.  I had been wasting too much time on high EV but small stakes.  It actually wasn't worth the effort but I was stuck in the cycle. You can't stay in Junior Infants forever.

And even when you graduate to the exchanges the big hitters are not in your class.  They are handicapped by premium commission.  Some commission structures are so penalising that many traders or pro bettors will opt out of competing at that exchange completely.  With such a headstart you can beat them on some markets.

You've learned alot about the markets in Soft Book school, Arbers 101, the University of Matched Betting and have your Certificate in Each Way sniping.  You've got your participation awards from Skybet, bet365, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral, betway, betvictor.  

You have the tools, confidence and bank roll to continue your journey at the exchanges.

I think its quite by accident that the system is set up that way - like an educational institution where you can compete as top of class on each level and graduate to the next level.  It has serverd me well.  

What is the next step when premium or pro tier commission sets in? After the exchanges.  I have not found out yet.  Do you end up becoming a market maker, joining forces with a bookie, selling your odds (to a bookie? to punters?), writing books, writing blogs, making podcasts, content creator, youtuber, or just retiring.

Figure1: Graduating Skybet with a first class honours degree

Figure 2: Although Im far from the best, I am protected by different levels of commission, so can compete somewhat at smarkets exchange.