FoG

Belgium play England in the 3rd place play-off, both teams are out of the tournament proper - although 3rd place is a small incentive, this can be almost viewed a friendly game. Much like the same match up in the last game of the Group Stages. So how would you price this in comparison to the original group game opening price? How would you price it in comparison to the closing price of the original group game? There is quite a difference now in the pricing of both games. For the opening price for the original Group game it may have been expected to be more of a competitive fixture, at least it might have been important to finish 1st or 2nd in the group.  There are the normal concerns of a dead rubber especially based on the make up of the group  - a big gap between the top 2 and bottom 2 teams, coupled with the fact that the top 2 teams play last. But when the opening price was conceived nobody could have predicted how things would turn out with Germany dropping out...

There is a buzz starting around England's chances and rightly so - the wisdom of the betfair hive mind has acted to shorten their price from 18.5 pre tournament into 8.2 now. This represents a move from about 5% chance to just over 12% chance. It has mostly been out of their control up to now, the victory against Tunisia was expected so only raised their hopes by 1.5%, similarly the victory over Panama. The big influencers were the German and Spanish eliminations which raised their chances by 2% and 3% respectively. Even defeat to Belgium increased England's chances ever so slightly. It is reason for optimism for sure as their chances have at least doubled. But feet need to stick firmly on the ground. Their advantage so far has come from outside influences without them having to perform, now its time for them to prove themselves. Japan was assumed the easier R16 match for Group G but they went two up on Belgium - so what of Colombia? Some places are calling this one m...

I have been watching the odds trends to try and figure out what actually matters. The media narratives can be strong, they can be convincing, but ultimately they can be wide of the mark. Spain's price only wobbled when it was announced that their manager was sacked, they drifted amid the speculation and media frenzy but they were back to the same price within 24 hours. England made a lot about getting on the "easy" side of the draw, which they achieved. It only moved their price from 9.4 pre match to 9.0 after the match.  Belgium's odds for taking the "hard" way were 8.0 pre match and have settled at 8.2 now - hardly significant. So what did matter?   Can you put in a performance in 3 games so good/bad that the market will re-assess your chances significantly? Is it a matter of getting a good draw and taking advantage of a void left by a team like Germany? Germany getting knocked out mattered a lot. It benefited Brazil, they were slightly drift...

Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku will go into the last round of group games level on 4 goals each. Lukaku has made it to 4 goals in less playing time.  Ronaldo will have a chance to take a clear lead when Portugal face Iran - Iran held out well against Spain but realistically you would expect Portugal to win, and Portugal have to score, group qualification is not secured yet for the Portugese. Portugal may also be motivated to run up a big goal difference because 1st in the group may give a slightly more favourable route through the Round of 16 and Quarters than 2nd. Belgium's final group match is against England. It could be tight. Or, with both teams already qualified the coach might decide to rest players. Also the winner of the Belgium group will be sent on course to meet either Brazil or Germany in the Quarter Final. It all contributes to the opinion that England versus Belgium might not be the most competitive match. However over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.2 on betfair exchange...