Horses Money Back 2nd, 4/1+ Winners, 3/1+ Winners, 2nd to SP
Free Bets.
You have got to believe that every time you place a bet you are giving money to the bookie's. Yes you win some, and lose some but in the long run the bookie has set up the odds with an edge in their favour. Depending on if you like to bet on favourites or underdogs you could be losing 10% to 50% of your stake in the long run.
This is true unless the bookie is giving you something back in return - like a free bet.
At the moment both Ladbrokes and Will Hill have been offering money back as a free bet if the horse you backed to win finishes second. This is usually available for the Channel 4 races.
Paddy Power have been offering money back too, but only if 2nd to the SP favourite.
Coral have started offering your stake back as a free bet but this time if your 3/1+ pick wins. Betfair sometimes have a similar offer.
Bet365 have the same offer as Coral but your odds have to be 4/1 or longer to qualify.
Other online bookie's like Betfred, sportingbet, Skybet have similar promotions.
But what are these free bets really worth and how likely are you really going to get it.
What is the free bet worth?
Played right a free bet is worth about 80% of its value in real money - so a €25 free bet is worth €20.
How often will you get a free bet?
Have a look at the chart. The first thing to notice is that it is actually quite tough to pick a 2nd place. The good horses are more likely to win than come second - the poor horses might come second now and again. The middle of the road horses do come 2nd often enough but mix in a few 1st place finishes.
On the face of it, if you stick to horses less than 3/1 then you should come up with a free bet (worth €20 assuming a €25 stake) once in 5 races. But €20 isn't pure profit, there will have been a cost for betting on 5 races. In 5 races you will have staked about €125. As said before without any promotions we expect to lose about 10% back to the bookie. So on €125, we probably would have given the bookie about €12.50. This would put us up €7.50 every 5 races or an average profit of €1.50 per race. This isn't a lot and if we pick horses with poor chances of finishing 2nd our edge will be even less or will have swung right back in the bookie's favour.
About evens looks like a good bet to finish 2nd - 26% of the horses in our sample. This will give us a slightly bigger edge and expect to increase our profit to €2.70 per race.
What about winners? On the 3/1+ and 4/1+ offers you only get a free bet if you win. This is worse news. Only 23% of those horses rated at 3/1 by the bookies would have earned that free bet. 23% is just enough to keep in profit. For example a €25 bet will earn you €20 about 23% of the time - an expectation of €4.60. Minus the 10% (€2.50) cost per bet leaves you with a long term expected profit of €2.10 per race.
And for 4/1+? Its 18% for 4/1 horses and 17% for 9/2 and drops significantly after that. This only gives you an expected profit of €0.90 per race or even less as the longer the odds the bigger the edge the bookie will take. Some matched betters can keep the cost of a bet lower than 10% so can extract more value from these offers and even run a profit on horses with longer odds.
My opinion is never go over 4/1.
Always be careful betting, only bet spare money and as they say "when the fun stops, stop".
Even "guaranteed" profit schemes like matched betting are prone to human error or timing - for example if the odds take a big jump in the exchange just after you get your bookie bet on and before you get your exchange bet on.
It's not always money problems either, gambling addictions can take up a huge slice of your time and cause you to neglect career/family. Gambling can also cause mood swings. So even if its putting money in your account please be wary.
You have got to believe that every time you place a bet you are giving money to the bookie's. Yes you win some, and lose some but in the long run the bookie has set up the odds with an edge in their favour. Depending on if you like to bet on favourites or underdogs you could be losing 10% to 50% of your stake in the long run.
This is true unless the bookie is giving you something back in return - like a free bet.
At the moment both Ladbrokes and Will Hill have been offering money back as a free bet if the horse you backed to win finishes second. This is usually available for the Channel 4 races.
Paddy Power have been offering money back too, but only if 2nd to the SP favourite.
Coral have started offering your stake back as a free bet but this time if your 3/1+ pick wins. Betfair sometimes have a similar offer.
Bet365 have the same offer as Coral but your odds have to be 4/1 or longer to qualify.
Other online bookie's like Betfred, sportingbet, Skybet have similar promotions.
But what are these free bets really worth and how likely are you really going to get it.
What is the free bet worth?
Played right a free bet is worth about 80% of its value in real money - so a €25 free bet is worth €20.
How often will you get a free bet?
Have a look at the chart. The first thing to notice is that it is actually quite tough to pick a 2nd place. The good horses are more likely to win than come second - the poor horses might come second now and again. The middle of the road horses do come 2nd often enough but mix in a few 1st place finishes.
On the face of it, if you stick to horses less than 3/1 then you should come up with a free bet (worth €20 assuming a €25 stake) once in 5 races. But €20 isn't pure profit, there will have been a cost for betting on 5 races. In 5 races you will have staked about €125. As said before without any promotions we expect to lose about 10% back to the bookie. So on €125, we probably would have given the bookie about €12.50. This would put us up €7.50 every 5 races or an average profit of €1.50 per race. This isn't a lot and if we pick horses with poor chances of finishing 2nd our edge will be even less or will have swung right back in the bookie's favour.
About evens looks like a good bet to finish 2nd - 26% of the horses in our sample. This will give us a slightly bigger edge and expect to increase our profit to €2.70 per race.
What about winners? On the 3/1+ and 4/1+ offers you only get a free bet if you win. This is worse news. Only 23% of those horses rated at 3/1 by the bookies would have earned that free bet. 23% is just enough to keep in profit. For example a €25 bet will earn you €20 about 23% of the time - an expectation of €4.60. Minus the 10% (€2.50) cost per bet leaves you with a long term expected profit of €2.10 per race.
And for 4/1+? Its 18% for 4/1 horses and 17% for 9/2 and drops significantly after that. This only gives you an expected profit of €0.90 per race or even less as the longer the odds the bigger the edge the bookie will take. Some matched betters can keep the cost of a bet lower than 10% so can extract more value from these offers and even run a profit on horses with longer odds.
My opinion is never go over 4/1.
Always be careful betting, only bet spare money and as they say "when the fun stops, stop".
Even "guaranteed" profit schemes like matched betting are prone to human error or timing - for example if the odds take a big jump in the exchange just after you get your bookie bet on and before you get your exchange bet on.
It's not always money problems either, gambling addictions can take up a huge slice of your time and cause you to neglect career/family. Gambling can also cause mood swings. So even if its putting money in your account please be wary.
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