Ireland: Euro 2016 Qualification

Ireland's odds for qualifying have been slashed again following a disappointing draw with Scotland.

Irelands changing fortunes (click to enlarge)
Ireland started off quite well even drawing with the World Champions on their home turf. Then the three most recent results saw their odds plummet, plummet and plummet again. First was defeat to Scotland, then a home draw with Poland and another home draw this time Scotland. The bookies are now quoting 3/1. In fairness to Ireland though, at least in the two home draws I feel they showed a little more than their opponents, but not enough more.

So how can Ireland overcome this. The table shows Germany and Poland realistically out of reach. Scotland though are 2 points clear of Ireland, but their superior record against Ireland this campaign means that finishing level with them is no good. Ireland need to make up 3 points.

That means matching all their results but beating one team that defeat them.

Assume both teams beat Gibraltar - then there is Georgia, Poland and Germany left.

Georgia
Ireland have a 100% record (6 games, 6 wins) against Georgia home and away. Ireland meet them in Dublin on September 7th.

Scotland on the other hand have lost to Georgia before in the Euro 2008 Qualifiers. To prove that it wasn't just a one off, Georgia also beat Croatia in Euro 2012 Qualifiers. They could be dangerous. In this campaign Scotland beat them narrowly in Scotland (1-0). They have to play them in Georgia on September 4th.

If Ireland beat Georgia and Scotland lose to Georgia, that's one way Ireland could qualify (if they match the rest of their results).

Poland
Scotland have Poland at home, and Ireland have Poland away - advantage Scotland there. Neither Scotland or Ireland have ever beaten Poland competitively. The likely outcome here is draws all around. Ireland will need to at least match Scotland's result here.

But if Ireland could some how beat Poland and Scotland were to lose to Poland then Ireland could qualify (if they match the rest of their results).

Germany
Scotland have lost 3 and drawn 1 against Germany competitively. The only draw came at home and more than 10 years ago. Scotland will meet Germany in Scotland on September 7th. Scotland have beaten the Germans in Friendlies though, once in 1936 and again in 1999.

Ireland  have lost 3 and drawn 3 against Germany competitively. They will be encouraged by the draw in this campaign in Germany. So Ireland have a marginally better competitive record against the Germans and have some recent form on their side.

If Ireland beat Germany and Scotland lose to Germany, that's another way Ireland could qualify (if they match the rest of their results).

That all means that Ireland have hope, slim hope. I feel their best chance is to hope for some kind of slip up from Scotland away from home to Georgia.

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