Analysing Bet365 Open Account Offer
Bet365 will give you a bonus to match your first deposit up to €200. Is this good value?
The 1/2 restriction does hurt us a little - you get a better return for even shorter favourites. However going by the chart above we would expect the bookies edge to swallow up just 4% of our stake if we bet at 1/2 or as close as we can get. So having been forced to stake €1200, we would on average lose 4% of that back to the bookie which is €48. This leaves us with €152 profit out of the €200 bonus. Remember €48 is just an average you could lose more or less.
That is the theory anyway. So I decided to dig into my data to see the practice. I took the last 60 games at 1/2 which is the odds that we wanted (or close to 1/2). I simulated a €20 bet on each game and I was surprised by the results.
Remember that the odds below and the results are real. The simulated part is the cash.
As you can see things worked out very well, rather than the expected average 4% loss per bet we would have made an average 16% gain per bet. There are a lot of end of season games included and some friendlies - these sort of results are harder to predict and it looks like the bookie's got it wrong. Don't be fooled though, I wouldn't count on making more than the theorised €152 on this promotion. Rather, this example provides a warning that the €152 is an expected average and the real profit could be a lot higher and therefore also a lot lower too.
In the below thought experiment we deposited €200, Bet365 gave us €200 bonus and we would have gone on to win a further €201.62 on our minimum requited bets.
If you read the terms and conditions you must stake your original deposit and the bonus three times before you can withdraw any winnings off your bonus. So for a €200 deposit with a €200 bonus that would require staking €1200. This is the equivalent of 60 €20 bets.
You have 90 days to do this.
A further restriction is that the bets must be made at odds of 1/2 (1.5) or higher.
We can still work with these restrictions and hopefully have some money left of the €200 bonus after the turnover requirements. The chart below shows that the shorter the odds, the closer to breaking even or even making a small profit. The chart was compiled from my database of odds and results from football-data.co.uk which records odds from 2002. It has also been augmented with odds for matches collected from paddypower.ie for all the top leagues in the Europe and some from outside Europe since the beginning of last season.
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| Expected Return different odds, showing that you are closer to breaking even by betting on favourites and you are losing big by betting on long shots. |
The 1/2 restriction does hurt us a little - you get a better return for even shorter favourites. However going by the chart above we would expect the bookies edge to swallow up just 4% of our stake if we bet at 1/2 or as close as we can get. So having been forced to stake €1200, we would on average lose 4% of that back to the bookie which is €48. This leaves us with €152 profit out of the €200 bonus. Remember €48 is just an average you could lose more or less.
That is the theory anyway. So I decided to dig into my data to see the practice. I took the last 60 games at 1/2 which is the odds that we wanted (or close to 1/2). I simulated a €20 bet on each game and I was surprised by the results.
Remember that the odds below and the results are real. The simulated part is the cash.
As you can see things worked out very well, rather than the expected average 4% loss per bet we would have made an average 16% gain per bet. There are a lot of end of season games included and some friendlies - these sort of results are harder to predict and it looks like the bookie's got it wrong. Don't be fooled though, I wouldn't count on making more than the theorised €152 on this promotion. Rather, this example provides a warning that the €152 is an expected average and the real profit could be a lot higher and therefore also a lot lower too.
In the below thought experiment we deposited €200, Bet365 gave us €200 bonus and we would have gone on to win a further €201.62 on our minimum requited bets.
| Date | Competition | Match | Bet | Final Score | Stake | Profit | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-10 | Swedish Allsvenskan | Häcken vs Orebro | BK Hacken@4/7 | 2 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €411.43 |
| 2015-05-10 | Czech First League | Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec | Baumit Jablonec@8/15 | 2 - 0 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €422.09 |
| 2015-05-10 | German Bundesliga | Paderborn vs Wolfsburg | Wolfsburg@2/3 | 1 - 3 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €435.43 |
| 2015-05-12 | Turkish Super Lig | Buyuksehyr vs Sivasspor | Buyuksehyr@11/20 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | €11.00 | €446.43 |
| 2015-05-16 | Romanian Liga I | Targu Mures vs Petrolul Ploiesti | Targu Mures@4/7 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €457.86 |
| 2015-05-16 | French Ligue 1 | Nice vs Lens | Nice@5/8 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | €12.50 | €470.36 |
| 2015-05-16 | Swiss Super League | Sion vs Aarau | FC Sion@8/15 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €481.02 |
| 2015-05-16 | German Bundesliga | Schalke 04 vs Paderborn | Schalke 04@5/8 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €12.50 | €493.52 |
| 2015-05-17 | Slovenian 1 SNL | Radomlje vs Zavrc | Zavrc@8/13 | 0 - 4 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €505.83 |
| 2015-05-17 | Spanish Liga | Valencia vs Celta | Valencia@5/8 | 1 - 1 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €485.83 |
| 2015-05-17 | Dutch Eredivisie | Heracles vs Go Ahead Eagles | Heracles@5/8 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €12.50 | €498.33 |
| 2015-05-17 | Turkish Super Lig | Erciyesspor vs Buyuksehyr | Buyuksehyr@4/7 | 0 - 1 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €509.76 |
| 2015-05-17 | Ukraine Premier League | Volyn vs Hoverla | Volyn Lutsk@8/13 | 4 - 2 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €522.07 |
| 2015-05-17 | Swiss Super League | Basel vs Young Boys | FC Basel@4/6 | 0 - 0 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €502.07 |
| 2015-05-18 | Bulgarian A PFG | Haskovo vs Cherno More | Cherno More Varna@8/15 | 1 - 3 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €512.73 |
| 2015-05-20 | Ukraine Premier League | Metalist vs Chornomorets | Metalist Kharkiv@8/15 | 0 - 0 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €492.73 |
| 2015-05-20 | Polish Ekstraklasa | Lech Poznan vs Slask Wroclaw | Lech Poznan@8/13 | 3 - 0 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €505.04 |
| 2015-05-23 | Slovenian 1 SNL | Krka vs Maribor | Maribor@4/7 | 1 - 3 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €516.47 |
| 2015-05-23 | Slovenian 1 SNL | Celje vs Gorica | NK Celje@4/6 | 0 - 3 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €496.47 |
| 2015-05-23 | Polish Ekstraklasa | Pogon Szczecin vs Legia Warsaw | Legia Warsaw@8/15 | 0 - 1 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €507.13 |
| 2015-05-23 | Ireland Premier Division | Longford Town vs Limerick | Longford Town@4/7 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €518.56 |
| 2015-05-23 | Ukraine Premier League | Metalurh Donetsk vs Hoverla | Metalurg Donetsk@8/13 | 0 - 0 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €498.56 |
| 2015-05-23 | Portuguese Primeira Liga | Rio Ave vs Sp Lisbon | Sp Lisbon@3/5 | 0 - 1 | €20.00 | €12.00 | €510.56 |
| 2015-05-23 | Spanish Liga | Bilbao vs Villarreal | Ath Bilbao@2/3 | 4 - 0 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €523.90 |
| 2015-05-23 | Spanish Liga | Almeria vs Valencia | Valencia@2/3 | 2 - 3 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €537.23 |
| 2015-05-23 | Croatian Prva HNL | Hajduk Split vs Zagreb | Hajduk Split@8/15 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €547.90 |
| 2015-05-23 | United States MLS | LA Galaxy vs Houston Dynamo | LA Galaxy@4/6 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €561.23 |
| 2015-05-23 | Russian Premier League | Spartak Moscow vs Ufa | Spartak Moscow@8/15 | 1 - 2 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €541.23 |
| 2015-05-23 | German Bundesliga | Ein Frankfurt vs Leverkusen | Leverkusen@2/3 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €521.23 |
| 2015-05-23 | United States MLS | Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire | Columbus Crew@4/6 | 2 - 2 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €501.23 |
| 2015-05-23 | German Bundesliga | M'gladbach vs Augsburg | M'gladbach@11/20 | 1 - 3 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €481.23 |
| 2015-05-24 | Romanian Liga I | Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs CS U Craiova | Universitatea Craiova@4/7 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €461.23 |
| 2015-05-24 | Ukraine Premier League | Metalist vs Illichivets' | Metalist Kharkiv@8/15 | 3 - 1 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €471.90 |
| 2015-05-24 | Russian Premier League | Krasnodar vs Rostov | FK Krasnodar@4/7 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €483.32 |
| 2015-05-24 | United States MLS | New York RB vs Philadelphia Union | New York Red Bulls@4/7 | 0 - 2 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €463.32 |
| 2015-05-24 | English Premier League | Man City vs Southampton | Man City@4/7 | 2 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €474.75 |
| 2015-05-24 | English Premier League | Leicester vs QPR | Leicester@3/5 | 5 - 1 | €20.00 | €12.00 | €486.75 |
| 2015-05-25 | Swiss Super League | St Gallen vs Aarau | St. Gallen@8/13 | 5 - 1 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €499.06 |
| 2015-05-25 | Turkish Super Lig | Akhisar Bld Spor vs Bursaspor | Bursaspor@2/3 | 0 - 1 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €512.39 |
| 2015-05-25 | Russian Premier League | CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan | CSKA Moscow@4/7 | 3 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €523.82 |
| 2015-05-27 | Romanian Liga I | Concordia Chiajna vs Petrolul Ploiesti | Concordia Chiajna@8/13 | 3 - 2 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €536.13 |
| 2015-05-28 | United States MLS | Portland Timbers vs DC United | Portland Timbers@4/6 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €549.46 |
| 2015-05-28 | United States MLS | Seattle Sounders vs Colorado Rapids | Seattle Sounders@8/13 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €561.77 |
| 2015-05-28 | United States MLS | LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake | LA Galaxy@8/15 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €572.44 |
| 2015-05-29 | Croatian Prva HNL | Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka | Dinamo Zagreb@4/7 | 4 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €583.87 |
| 2015-05-29 | Swiss Super League | Basel vs St Gallen | FC Basel@8/15 | 4 - 3 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €594.53 |
| 2015-05-30 | Slovenian 1 SNL | Gorica vs Zavrc | Nd Gorica@8/15 | 4 - 0 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €605.20 |
| 2015-05-30 | United States MLS | Whitecaps vs Real Salt Lake | Vancouver Whitecaps@4/6 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €618.53 |
| 2015-05-30 | United States MLS | Toronto vs SJ Earthquakes | Toronto FC@4/6 | 3 - 1 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €631.87 |
| 2015-05-31 | Italian Serie A | Inter vs Empoli | Inter@9/17 | 4 - 3 | €20.00 | €10.59 | €642.45 |
| 2015-06-05 | Polish Ekstraklasa | Korona Kielce vs Podbeskidzie | Korona Kielce@4/7 | 3 - 1 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €653.88 |
| 2015-06-05 | Ireland Premier Division | Galway vs Cork City | Cork City@4/6 | 1 - 3 | €20.00 | €13.33 | €667.22 |
| 2015-06-05 | Ireland Premier Division | Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers | Shamrock Rovers@8/15 | 5 - 1 | €20.00 | €10.67 | €677.88 |
| 2015-06-05 | Friendly | Hungary vs Lithuania | Hungary@4/7 | 4 - 0 | €20.00 | €11.43 | €689.31 |
| 2015-06-05 | Friendly | Holland vs USA | Holland@8/15 | 3 - 4 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €669.31 |
| 2015-06-06 | Friendly | Colombia vs Costa Rica | Colombia@8/13 | 1 - 0 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €649.31 |
| 2015-06-07 | Friendly | Paraguay vs Honduras | Paraguay@8/13 | 2 - 2 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €629.31 |
| 2015-06-08 | Friendly | Denmark vs Montenegro | Denmark@8/13 | 2 - 1 | €20.00 | €12.31 | €641.62 |
| 2015-06-09 | Friendly | Uganda vs Gambia | Uganda@8/13 | 1 - 1 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €621.62 |
| 2015-06-09 | Friendly | Finland vs Estonia | Finland@4/6 | 0 - 2 | €20.00 | -€20.00 | €601.62 |
| Totals: | €1200.00 | €201.62 |
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