Penalty Lottery

The Round of 16 started off with a whimper (a stalemate between Brazil and Chile) and continued with a roar (as Colombia produced maybe the goal of the tournament as they dismissed a toothless Uruguay) today.  I was disappointed that Neymar didn't try this though.
CountryShootoutsWonLostPercent
Belgium110100%
Germany65183%
United States54180%
Colombia43175%
Nigeria107370%
Argentina106460%
Brazil106460%
Algeria42250%
France63350%
Costa Rica73443%
Mexico104640%
Netherlands51420%
Switzerland1010%
There has been a penalty shootout in the very first knockout game in Brazil.  Last time out in 2010 there was only a total of 2 shootouts.  The record was set in 1990 and equalled in 2006.  In both of those World Cups we saw 4 matches decided on penalties.

USA need to be careful not to push Belgium to penalty shots.  Belgium are the only team left in the competition that can boast a 100% record in penalty shootouts in competitive matches.  USA have quite a good record themselves as do Germany.  

Some teams won't want to go the penalties.  Switzerland have never won a shootout but only contested one.  Netherlands have been there five times but have a miserable return, winning just once.

Table on the right shows penalty shootouts excluding friendly games according to FIFA official match data.  The full list of shootouts for teams still in the competition is listed below.  

As for whether or not penalties are a lottery, it would seem to be.  FIFA's world rankings were introduced by FIFA in 1993, so we can use this to gauge if the better team is more likely to be successful in a shootout.  But since 1993 there have been 14 penalty shootouts contested at the World Cup - the worst ranked team won eight times while the better ranked team only 6.  The biggest mismatches were probably when Korea (ranked 40 at the time) beat Spain (8) in 2002 or when Bulgaria (29) beat Mexico (16) in 1994.
previous shootouts in competitive games for teams still at Brasil 2014
26/03/1988Algeria43MoroccoContinental final
23/03/1988Algeria89NigeriaContinental final
14/03/1984Algeria45CameroonContinental final
19/03/1980Algeria42EgyptContinental final
16/07/2011Argentina45UruguayContinental final
30/06/2006Argentina24GermanyFIFA World Cup
26/06/2005Argentina65MexicoFIFA Confederations Cup
25/07/2004Argentina24BrazilContinental final
30/06/1998Argentina43EnglandFIFA World Cup
17/07/1995Argentina24BrazilContinental final
01/07/1993Argentina65ColombiaContinental final
27/06/1993Argentina65BrazilContinental final
03/07/1990Argentina43ItalyFIFA World Cup
30/06/1990Argentina32YugoslaviaFIFA World Cup
22/06/1986Belgium54SpainFIFA World Cup
17/07/2011Brazil02ParaguayContinental final
10/07/2007Brazil54UruguayContinental final
25/07/2004Brazil42ArgentinaContinental final
21/07/2004Brazil53UruguayContinental final
07/07/1998Brazil42NetherlandsFIFA World Cup
23/07/1995Brazil35UruguayContinental final
17/07/1995Brazil42ArgentinaContinental final
17/07/1994Brazil32ItalyFIFA World Cup
27/06/1993Brazil56ArgentinaContinental final
21/06/1986Brazil34FranceFIFA World Cup
19/02/2000Colombia21USAContinental final
16/07/1995Colombia54ParaguayContinental final
01/07/1993Colombia56ArgentinaContinental final
26/06/1993Colombia53UruguayContinental final
18/06/2011Costa Rica24HondurasContinental final
21/01/2011Costa Rica42PanamaContinental qualifiers
23/07/2009Costa Rica35MexicoContinental final
01/02/2009Costa Rica35PanamaContinental qualifiers
18/02/2007Costa Rica41PanamaContinental qualifiers
27/02/2005Costa Rica76HondurasContinental qualifiers
07/12/1995Costa Rica24HondurasContinental qualifiers
09/07/2006France35ItalyFIFA World Cup
03/07/1998France43ItalyFIFA World Cup
26/06/1996France56Czech RepublicContinental final
22/06/1996France54NetherlandsContinental final
21/06/1986France43BrazilFIFA World Cup
08/07/1982France45Germany FRFIFA World Cup
30/06/2006Germany42ArgentinaFIFA World Cup
26/06/1996Germany65EnglandContinental final
04/07/1990Germany FR43EnglandFIFA World Cup
21/06/1986Germany FR41MexicoFIFA World Cup
08/07/1982Germany FR54FranceFIFA World Cup
20/06/1976Germany FR35CzechoslovakiaContinental final
23/07/2009Mexico53Costa RicaContinental final
26/06/2005Mexico56ArgentinaFIFA Confederations Cup
27/01/2002Mexico24Korea RepublicContinental final
10/07/1999Mexico42PeruContinental final
22/06/1997Mexico43EcuadorContinental final
17/07/1995Mexico14USAContinental final
13/01/1995Mexico54NigeriaFIFA Confederations Cup
10/01/1995Mexico24DenmarkFIFA Confederations Cup
05/07/1994Mexico13BulgariaFIFA World Cup
21/06/1986Mexico14Germany FRFIFA World Cup
26/06/2004Netherlands54SwedenContinental final
29/06/2000Netherlands13ItalyContinental final
07/07/1998Netherlands24BrazilFIFA World Cup
22/06/1996Netherlands45FranceContinental final
22/06/1992Netherlands45DenmarkContinental final
25/01/2010Nigeria54ZambiaContinental final
04/02/2006Nigeria65TunisiaContinental final
11/02/2004Nigeria35TunisiaContinental final
13/02/2000Nigeria34CameroonContinental final
13/01/1995Nigeria45MexicoFIFA Confederations Cup
06/04/1994Nigeria42Cte d'IvoireContinental final
23/03/1988Nigeria98AlgeriaContinental final
14/03/1984Nigeria87EgyptContinental final
28/08/1983Nigeria43MoroccoContinental qualifiers
12/07/1980Nigeria43TunisiaFIFA World Cup Qualifiers
26/06/2006Switzerland03UkraineFIFA World Cup
24/07/2005USA31PanamaContinental final
30/01/2002USA42CanadaContinental final
19/02/2000USA12ColombiaContinental final
17/07/1995USA41MexicoContinental final
07/07/1991USA43HondurasContinental final


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