Africa's Day not to be


Nigeria and Algeria were the last African teams standing today.  Both were knocked out to end another World Cup where the African teams have underachieved.  It was somewhat of a topsy turvy tournament for the African nations.  On 21st June Nigeria beat Bosnia-Herzegovina and two days later Algeria beat Korea.  The bookmakers sat up and paid attention and the odds of an African team to lift the trophy began to take a steep uphill trajectory.  However the elimination of Ivory Coast on the 25th was the beginning of the end of the African dream.  The chart shows the estimated probability of an African team winning the World Cup.  Estimated probabilities are based on the bookmakers odds (eg evens => 50%, 2 to 1 => 33%).  So ends another World Cup riddled with disappointment for the African Continent.



Egypt was the first African team to take part in the World Cup in 1934 but fell at the first hurdle.  There was no African teams present at the finals again until 1970.  By 1977 a sense of optimism about African football was being felt and Pele famously made his prediction that an African team would win the World Cup before 2000.  Indeed 1978 was the most successful year in terms of percentage of games won.  However it would be a long time before African teams would progress past the Round of 16.



Cameroon became the first team to make the Quarter Finals in 1990.  Then Senegal equalled that achievement in 2002.  In 2010 Ghana came so close to going one better and only lost out on a Semi Final berth by penalty kicks to Uruguay.  Sadly this time no African team will be in the Quarters.
# teamsGPW% games won per teamDLFARound of 16 ParticipantsQuarter Final Participant
World Cup 19341100.00%012410
World Cup 19701300.00%122600
World Cup 19741300.00%0301400
World Cup 197813133.33%113200
World Cup 198226216.66%316600
World Cup 19862717.14%334710
World Cup 199028318.75%2381111
World Cup 199431026.67%17122010
World Cup 199851633.75%67172910
World Cup 200251744.71%67162211
World Cup 200651633.75%310142610
World Cup 201062043.33%610172411
World Cup 201451733.53%311193220


African performances seem to have stagnated since 1998, averaging just 3-5% win rate per team participating.  Even home advantage in 2010 could not have bucked that trend.  This time round they have scored more goals than ever before but this is more likely to do with the general openness of this tournament rather than any marked improvement on Africans attacking.  The goals scored will be taken as a positive and also never before have two African teams made it out of the groups.  However it does feel like it is a very long way to go before an African team will be a serious contender.

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