Market Watch: Ballon D'Or

The Ballon D'Or has been presented since 1956, there have been numerous changes in the voting process in that time.  So much so that much of the old data is irrelevant.  We will look mostly at recent years - namely the last 10 awards (2013-2023).

Even in that time there are changes in the voting process. 

  • 2013: It was Media, Captains and Coaches voted for the best player in the world (and it had been this way since 2010).
  • 2016: it reverted to Media (journalists) only, one representing every country in the world.
  • 2022: it was further restricted to journalist one representing the top 100 FIFA ranked nations.
  • Also in 2022 there was changes in the criteria.  Before 2022 the players overall career was also a consideration, in 2022 it was explicitly just based on current season.
How have these changes effected results.

Media opinion vs Captains/Coaches.

We have the breakdown of votes for the period for when both Media (Journos) and Captain/Coaches voted.

Ballon D'Or Vote breakdowns by Captain/Coach/Media, top 3 only listed.

Ribery would have won the Ballon D'Or in 2013 based on the Media vote.  The other two years in our data set didn't change the result.  A separate analysis of 2010 shows that Sniejder would have won that years award based just the Media vote.

Now, it seems clear to me that the Media is putting a large emphasis on the Champions League.  In 2010 Inter Milan won the Champions League (with Sniejder), in 2013 Bayern (with Ribery) won the Champions League.  Even 2014 and 2015 you can see that Real Madrid's Ronaldo and Barcelona's Messi got comparably more Media votes.  Real and Barca won the Champions League in those years.

Dont take my word for it.  Cleber has the Brazilian Journalist vote for the Ballon D'Or.





Top 100 Journos vs Entire World

The change to restrict the countries eligible to vote may be more a subtle change.  


Filtering the eligible votes to the top 100 FIFA Countries has given European Journalist a bigger influence, they were about 30% of the vote rising to 43%.  The contingent losing out is a myriad of spanish speaking countries part of CONCACAF, small Carribean Islands.  They held up to 16% of the vote.

The votes for these awards are available on the web - they can be quite hard to track down.  But when you do you can throw out the votes from the countries who are outside the top 100.  This is what I have done for the years in our data set.

We see that Lionel Messi (Argentinian) would have missed out in both 2019 and 2021 to Van Dijk (Dutch) and Lewandowoski (Polish).  

Alternative Ballon D'Or winners 2013-2023

So, putting it all together here are our alternative winners - based on if the voting process in those years were the same as today.  (For 2013 to 2015 you throw out the players and coaches votes, for 2013 to 2021 you throw out the Journalists outside the top 100 votes.)
Alternate Ballon D'Or winners based on only Journo votes of top 100 Countries

So now we know what this particular group of Journalists are influenced by, lets consider the top contenders for this year.

Vinicius Jr.

Vinicius has won the Champions League Player of the Season.  This is an award judged by UEFA's Technical Observer Committee.  

Neither Brazil nor Vinicius Jr made many headlines in the Copa America.

We've already seen the influence that the Champions League can have.  I think this advantage sets Vinicius Jr and Bellingham apart.  Especially for Vini Jr who scored a very good and very important goal in the Final.

Jude Bellingham 

Bellingham has won La Liga Player of the Season.  The La Liga Player of the Season has gone on to win our alternative Ballon D'Or 3 out of 10 times in our data set.

He also has a Champions League medal although did not grab the headlines in the Final.

Bellingham failed to reach the high standard that the media set for him in the Euro's - although England did reach the Final.  On reflection he probably was one of their best players overall, along with Declan Rice. 

Mbappe

Mbappe was Champions League Top Goalscorer for 23/24 (level with Kane).  Also Ligue 1 player of the season and Ligue 1 Top Goalscorer.  

He has also already been named Footballer of the Year at the Globe Soccer Awards and ESPYS.  These are not high profile awards.  ESPYS are organised by ESPN but don't always have a soccer player category so hard to say how relevant or predictive it is.  Globe Soccer Awards has a journalistic element in the voting process but mixed system including fans, agents, coaches and ex-players as well.  In the past awards 6 out of 10 of the Globe Soccer Award winners also went on to win our alternative Ballon D'Or.

Mbappe disappointed in the Euros but he had his excuses - his injury, that mask, and the fact that France flopped as a team maybe let him down.

Alot of players disappointed in the Euros. 

I would not make him a top 2 contender, however the above discussion means that you have to have a look at the 40/1 on oddschecker or the 50.0 on betfair exchange.

Rodri

So Rodri has won the Euro's with Spain and on an individual basis has won the Euro Golden Ball.  The winner of the Golden Ball in the Euro has not really been in contention for the Ballon D'Or in general.  Donnarumma (2022), Griezmann (2016), Iniesta (2012), Xavi (2008), Zagorakis (2004) and Zidane (2000) won the Euro Golden Ball but were passed over for Ballon D'Or in those years.  1996 and Matthias Sammer was the last time the Euro Golden Ball winner also won the Ballon D'Or.  And he only won by a single point.

It was also a surprise to many that Rodri picked up the Golden Ball.  Sofascore ranked him 15th in their players ratings - behind Ruiz, Olmo, Yamal and Cucurella of Spain, ie not even the best Spanish player.  Fotmob ranked him 53rd and whoscored ranked him 43rd.

That award is also decided by a Technical Study Group which may be looking at different criteria to what the Journalists are looking for.  In any case the Technical Study Group also named Rodri Champions League Player of the Season in 2022/23.  The Ballon D'Or journalists disagreed, he finished 5th on their poll with 57 points, behind De Bruyne (100 pts), Mbappe (270 pts), Haaland (357 pts) and Messi (462 pts).

Back to this season and he wasn't even the best player at his club (Foden won a fan vote - perhaps biased).  Or the best player in the League.  Foden won the Premier League player of the Year award which is chosen by a panel assembled by the league's sponsors consisting of members of "football's governing bodies, the media and fans". Naturally those awards that Foden won will have been influenced by the English fanbase.

I still think that it is a worry for Rodri. Has his performance in the Euros been enough to change people like Henry Winter's mind on him. This is Henry's stated opinion back in May. Henry has the English vote for the Ballon D'Or.


Conclusion

Hopefully I have given you something to think about. My own opinion if you've been following my train of thought is 1. Vini Jr, 2. Bellingham, 3. Mbappe. I am not sure what the fair odds should be. If you allow me to be entirely unscientific and unmathematical and just pluck chances out of my mind then - I am 50% confident that Vini will win it and if I am wrong then maybe 25% on Bellingham, 15% on Mbappe and 10% on any other.











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