Twitter Watch: Gareth Southgate

With England, there is always alot of discussion about Gareth Southgate.

But how much do managers really matter anyway.  According to this article the answer is "not much" and even goes as far as to present a theory that managers are mere scapegoats for the board and owners.  Protects them from any real criticism when they can just sack/blame the manager.

I also think that a managers influence is becoming smaller and smaller over the years as modern football clubs have directors of football, data analytics departments and other teams of people that they lean on for support.  Its not all the managers decision as much as the Alex Ferguson days.

Furthermore for an International manager, he doesn't have a say in player development (he sees them 3 or 4 times per year only on international break).  He can't transfer players, he has to accept the players that he has.  So in both those aspects he has alot less control, a lot less influence.

That is not to say that the FA should or shouldn't look into replacing Southgate.

About 59 minutes into this twitter space one of the hosts explains the StarLizard thinking on this as it applies to an interview question they have asked to screen candidates.

Q: Tottenham women have ten games left and you have them in for 15 xPts. The womens manager is sacked and Pochettino takes over. Whats your new xPts total?

A: 16 to 20 is what they were looking to hear. They are adamant Elite coaches will make an immediate difference. You expect then when a manager is sacked and a good manager comes in, Bloom would be moving the market on that.

So it matters, but only a bit - and only depends on gap in level of manager. 

So it matters only a bit.  The example is going from expecting something like 5 wins (15pts) to expecting something like 6 wins out of 10.  I say it matters only a bit, but 50% chance of winning compared to a 60% chance of winning is significant enough.  If you think in terms of a Euro 2024 and the chance of winning the 4 knockout games (Ro16, QF, SF and F).  If you assume 50% in each it gets you a 6.25% chance (16.0 in odds) of winning the Euro, 60% gets you 12.96% chance (7.71 in odds).  

The level of manager is the key thing.  In the interview question the gap is massive - a lower level manager would be expected at Club level in the Women's game still, in comparison to an Elite manager of the Men's game.  This is the interesting and key element for me.  Is this the right time to replace Southgate (a good manager with flaws) with someone absolutely elite.  

Alot of discussion around managers doesn't take into account potential replacements, who is available and who would want to take the job.  Usually it is difficult to attract someone better than who you already have.  Its just that's your level.  Realistically Tottenham Ladies would never attract Pochettino at the height of his career.  Just the same as England probably won't be able to attract someone levels ahead of Southgate.

The key questions for me: 

Firstly, will a truly Elite manager want to follow Southgate, especially if he wins on Sunday?  There is no incentive for the best in the game.  The expectations would be massive, the media glare intense.  Anything less than winning the World Cup in 2026 would be deemed a failure.  Risk ruining your career with little upside?

Secondly, will the FA have more money to spend.  The prize money is one thing but winning would give a boost to football and its finances surely in many more ways.  So in those terms, its cut throat, and although Southgate got them there it might also be the best time to replace him while they can cash in on the success and afford a manager levels above him.

So the answers to the key questions are a no and a yes.

As ever, I offer no definitive answer, just thoughts - my unqualified insignificant thoughts!  But thanks for reading.