The Time Travelling Gambler

<< You see, while we were in the future, Biff got the sports book, stole the time machine, went back in time and gave the book to himself somewhere in the past. Look, it says right here that Biff made his first million betting on a horse race in 1958. He wasn't just lucky, he knew, because he had all the race results in the sports almanac! That's how he made his entire fortune! Take a look at this with a magnifying glass. >> -- Doc Brown


So here is the premise (a little different from the Movie).  You travel back in time to when you are 18 years old.  How do you plot a path to becoming the "Luckiest Man On Earth"?

For me it is January 1996.

Now I know all the results from last weekend,  I know Man Utd won 1-0, I know Chelsea drew with Liverpool, I know City beat Burnley.  But I am not going to wait 27 years to make my move.

At the same time, I am going to wait some time.  My belief system has just been rocked with the discovery that I travelled through time.  I start questioning everything I know about reality.

Memory is a funny thing too, I expect it doesn't feel like the same 1996 that I remember.  Nostalgia being powerful - we remember things differently to how they actually were.  Already I am doubting if I am in the same reality.  I wait a while to see that this version of 1996 plays out like the original.  The infamous "I will love it" Keven Keegan rant in the run in to the 95/96 Premier League season will probably be the confirmation for me that it is playing out the same.

This is probably too late to have good odds on Utd.  For an 18 year old student with a minuscule betting bank and still feeling a bit luke warm about the whole thing, its not a great opportunity.  

Maybe I save half my grant cheque and borrow a couple of hundred from friends and family.  Winning less than a thousand on the likely odds on shot.  Its not exactly a "Luckiest Man on Earth" headline.

Also I haven't interacted much yet.  Perhaps when I start making significant moves or any move at all the ripples will in fact change the future.  Do I only have one chance?

If there is only once chance then I am passing on the Man Utd bet.  But at least some confirmation that we are on the same timeline (For now!?).

And then there is the sunrise problem.  Just because every day so far is following the original timeline, does it mean tomorrow will regardless of my interactions.

Suddenly realising that I need to execute a plan pretty fast.  The longer I wait the more chance that the timeline will start deviating either suddenly or gradually.

Its very hard to know for certain who won this or that without fact checking or googling.  And Ireland were pretty useless for those years, if it was '88, '90 or '94 I could name the correct scoreline and goalscorer for pretty much every major match they were involved in.  But in '96 I would honestly be at a complete loss (except for knowing to generally bet against us!).

I know Leicester City won the League at 3000/1 in the 2010's, the same day as Mark Selby won the World Championship.  It doesn't matter so much that I dont remember the exact year, I can max bet it every year at that price.  However it feels too long to wait.  

So what I do is write down as much as I can remember.  Most of which will be recent stuff that wont be useful for 25 years (or at all if the timeline deviates).  Was it 2000 that Greece won the Euros at 100/1?  It would be good to remember some big golfers wins, even the favourites are usually relatively big prices.  I am probably going to bet Greece until they win the Euros, bet Tiger Woods every tournament.  I remember Shane Lowry winning the Irish Open as an amateur, if that hasn't happened already (before 1996) I am going to bet him every year until he does.  I will be able to pluck some good goalscorer and correct score bets when the World Cup 2002 comes around and for the Champions League Final, was it 1999?  I think I am counting on memories to flood back to me at the time - sort of "oh I remember this" kind of moments like "Ryan Giggs is just about to pick up the ball and beat half the Arsenal team before slotting it over the keeper".  Not sure how big in play markets were then.

You are betting on your memory, betting on your understanding of time travel.  I am pretty sure I would bungle the whole opportunity.

 


What if Quantum Leap's Ziggy was a betting exchange?

Comments

  1. Matthew Trenhaile31 August 2023 at 02:01

    As a long time lover and user of your Chrome plugin for Oddschecker would you be open to some feedback and potential small new features? Not sure the best way to contact you so thought I would comment here.

    ReplyDelete

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