The Ratings: MLS

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Manual Install Extension

Image
  Code repository is available here:  https://bitbucket.org/heaneyd/overround-calculator/src/master/ 1. Click Downloads   2. Download Repository 3. Assume you know how to save the zip file and and extract it.  Just remember where you saved it. 4. In Chrome beside the address bar, click the jigsaw piece to manage extensions. 5. Make sure "Developer Mode" is turned on, and then click the "Load unpacked" button.  Just navigate to where you unzipped the file and "Select Folder".  You can then make sure that version 1.1 is toggled on and you can toggle off the chrome store version 1.0.
Read more

Premier League Top Goalscorer

Image
So I have this little app here  Top Goalscorer Sim . The Setup It runs a sim on goals scored per player.  The "Midpoint" is the midpoint between the Buy and Sell on the Season Goals market on Sporting Index.  This is the last read value.  The market suspends some players after significant news like an injury or transfer.  Most reads are fairly up to date, but Cole Palmer for example could revise his expected down a little as I haven't had a clean read from the market since his injury. So it then runs a little simulation for each player based on the average season goals expected.  I have added a dispersion factor also to add variation on some players.   New transfers , a lot more variance on those as unsure if they will be automatic starters.   Injury prone players, a lot more variance on those as well.   And maybe penalty takers , or potential penalty takers could have some variance.  They could even have some kind of "du...
Read more

Deconstructing WDL and O/U 2.5 goals odds.

Input odds below (in decimal): Home Odds: Draw Odds: Away odds: Over 2.5 Odds: Calculate Params See also Elo Reverse Calculator . Dixon Coles Dixon Coles is a method of generating probabilities on football matches.  It is related to Poisson but adds a correlation for low scores.  It seems to be one of the most accurate public methods.  It requires three parameters lambda, mu and rho.  rho describes how related low scores are.  lambda and mu represent the average goals the home and away team are expected to score. In this calculator I have fixed rho = -0.13 (more info here  and here ) and I simply do a brute force search varying lambda and mu to find the values that has the lowest error from the Win Draw Lose and Over 2.5 odds entered.  I use the WDL odds and Over/Under odds as they are the most liquid betting markets and you can usually read a very accurate estimate for these off oddschecker or the exchange.   The soluti...
Read more