The Ratings: MLS

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Bet Unfair

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Read my blog for the tips that bookies do NOT want you to know. The proof is that they continue to restrict my accounts for using the strategies I share here. Betfair have ordered a restriction on my account. So they join the growing list: William Hill Ladbrokes Sky bet Paddy Power Betway Betfred 888sport The list now also includes Coral and 188bet (who still allow me bonuses but is basically unusable thanks to stake restrictions on horses). In betfair's case I received this email - ironically just a couple of hours receiving a separate email inviting me to take part in different promos. With betfair their promotions had been decent but not great. The horse offer was frustrating. Basically you place a bet at 3/1 odds or higher and if he wins then you get a free bet to the same value of your original stake. I stayed clear of this one as 3/1 price had to be the SP. After backing a couple of horses, and and then watching their SP drop to under 3/1 and so missing out
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Deconstructing WDL and O/U 2.5 goals odds.

Input odds below (in decimal): Home Odds: Draw Odds: Away odds: Over 2.5 Odds: Calculate Params See also Elo Reverse Calculator . Dixon Coles Dixon Coles is a method of generating probabilities on football matches.  It is related to Poisson but adds a correlation for low scores.  It seems to be one of the most accurate public methods.  It requires three parameters lambda, mu and rho.  rho describes how related low scores are.  lambda and mu represent the average goals the home and away team are expected to score. In this calculator I have fixed rho = -0.13 (more info here  and here ) and I simply do a brute force search varying lambda and mu to find the values that has the lowest error from the Win Draw Lose and Over 2.5 odds entered.  I use the WDL odds and Over/Under odds as they are the most liquid betting markets and you can usually read a very accurate estimate for these off oddschecker or the exchange.   The solutions (from this brute force search described
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Chrome Extension 1000

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Donations now accepted If you have enjoyed using this extension and want to show your appreciation then click "Buy me a coffee" below, otherwise continue further down to read about our features! This started off as just a personal project.  I got full value from the effort that I put in already.   The effort included a few days coding initially and a day or two here or there to fix and add features, perhaps a full working week but fragmented all over the place.  In total it is now about 150 lines of code.   The reward was learning some javascript, learning about chrome extensions, earning some cred on twitter, and getting to connect with different people.  And of course I am actively using it and can identify potential betting opportunities myself. However surprisingly many have found it useful and some have asked for a way to say thanks.  So here it is. Feature Request (01 February 2024) - only available to manually install due to gambling exetnsions being rejected by Chrom
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