Twitter Watch: Tips for tipsters

There has been a bit of an incident on twitter and part of the fall out has seen a popular tipster asking for some advice.

Now clearly this is a successful tipster/content writer and we are an obscure blog that nobody reads, so who are we to give advice.  On the other hand, I do have some opinions so go ahead and read on if you are interested, or dont. 

1. Know your audience. Are you writing for aspirational bettors that want to learn how it all works, they want to learn the process of how you make picks and so be able to make picks for themselves.  Or are you writing for a recreational audience, people that want to know who to bet without having to do the hard thinking themselves.  Maybe they also want to read some interesting content around the tips.  If you are writing for the £5 bettor then by all means fill the piece up with interesting narrative and unattainable prices.  However you should also be clear that this is just betting for fun, don't set an expectancy of long term profit for your readers.  Walk the problem gambling line very carefully.

2. Stand out prices.  Don't pad your record by including stand out prices.  This won't help your readers.  You will get their accounts suspended, bets will possibly be palped. 

3. Unavailable prices.  Similarly don't pad your record with unavailable prices.  Maybe the prices were only available for 17 minutes.  That is no good to your readers.  Only a tiny percentage of them possibly get the price before its gone.

4. Floor prices.  Following on from those points you should always include the minimum price for the tip.  This is probably the number as well that you should record for profit/loss tracking purposes.  So if a reader doesn't have access to the top price (too late or restricted at that book) then they can still know if its worth getting on at a shorter price that they do have access to.

5. Be honest.  Combining points 2-4 may mean that your betting record, although profitable for you - who can get the prices before they move - doesnt show to be generally profitable for your readers.  Be honest about it, and again emphasise this is just for fun.

6. Be Educational.  Even if you are trying to cater to the recreational punter there is still no harm to throw in the odd bit of useful information.  Some ideas to throw in are Restrictions, Margin/Overrounds, Value.  You can also talk about markets, early markets, late markets, when is the best time to find value, when is the best time to get volume, are some markets easier or harder to beat.

Restrictions

Being good at betting is not an easy route to instant riches.  Your readers should know this.  If they are good they will be restricted quickly.  They will have to bet smaller odds, smaller stakes.  There will be a lot more work to keep getting on for quickly diminishing margins.  

Margins

The bookies are making money from people betting.  They have a fair idea of the true price and they add a margin on top of this.  You can estimate how much of a margin you need to over come by looking at overrounds.  This can be especially interesting when looking at each way and extra places markets.

Value

It's really not about the words.  It's about the number.  You can write 2000 lovely words about a golfer's power and consistency, about how he brings a par 4 to its knees.  And although the same words can be true whether the book has him 60/1 or 100/1, he might be only value at 100/1.  So its not the narrative that make him a good tip, its the price.  I think if you have an opportunity to get this idea across, then you should.