FoG

W e all know that a good bet can lose and a bad bet can win.  I am trying to track the good picks for the Handinaps Competition Races based on Expert opinions, and market opinion. Meet the Experts Starsports trader Flynn Goward made a market for the overall winner before the start of the first race.  These are the entrants that he put top of the market.  I respect his opinion and the opinions of all below.   Each race I will compare the distribution of their picks to the rest of us guessers. RowleyfileRRR -  Freelance racing & betting writer, analyst & forecaster. Form, time & sectional ratings. ATR regular, HBF. #BettingPeople Interview . Business of Betting Interview . davidjohnsontf -  Horseracing mainly, sometimes running. Flat Editor for @Timeform . Occasionally heard/seen on @SportingLife . drankfrebin - Steve Wilson pro punter/consultant. jamesaknight - Racing Trader Director at Entain. tony_calvin - Racing journalist/tipster, podc...

Running Order (Only works on desktop) Drag and drop the country "post-its" from "The Board" below to assign your own running order.  It indicates on the post-it whether the act has been drawn in the 1st half or the 2nd half.   First Half 9. Italy Second Half The Board France (1st) Germany (1st) Spain (1st) Switzerland (1st) Ukraine (1st) Netherlands (1st) Iceland (2nd) Norway (1st) Armenia (1st) Finland (1st) Czech Republic (1st) Romania (1st) United Kingdom (2nd) Lithuania (2nd) Moldova (2nd) Portugal (1st) Greece (2nd) Poland (2nd) Belgium (2nd) Azerbaijan (2nd) Estonia (2nd) Australia (2nd) Sweden (2nd) Serbia (2nd) Try and predict the running order.  There are no rules here and it will be at the Italian TV Producers discretion with EBU there to make sure fairness is observed.  The running order can be quite important - acts in the last 5 slots have h...

I am running catch up here as there were two more rounds of the Handinaps this weekend.  I will continue the series of post for now.  The idea is to track the good bets whether winners or losers.  Previous reviews are here . Race 3 - The Experts This week the experts liked Rajinski and Coltrane in bigger numbers than the rest of us.  I speculated before that the experts were picking based on the draw  or based on  one that the betting market might leave behind .  Race 3 Distribution of picks (Experts only left, All right) This time I am going to look at it based on steamers.  The experts will be used to working this way, identify one overpriced in the morning market.  If they are right then the market will catch up and the horse shortens.  Basically, beating the closing price.  This is how you make money betting.  The problem I see with picking this way in the Handinaps competition is that you do not get the early morning price...

I dont know if it is just me.  But twitter sucks up an absurd amount of time.  One single simple throwaway tweet can create an obsession in me. You start writing a reply, and nah don't have time to get involved in a twitter argument.  Delete.  Then okay I'll just make my point and leave.  So you start writing again.  Then delete again as you realise half way through you haven't a clue what you are talking about.  And so begins hours of research, analysis and rethinking and maybe a reply comes out of that and maybe not because now you have so much to say 256 characters are not enough (plus twitter has moved on).   This set me off last night https://twitter.com/JeffreyBenson12/status/1522353212325462016 Guys in Stiff Suits So apparently Bet365 dont know what they are doing.  They have no clue.  Likewise Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power and basically all the major hugely successfully bookmaking companies.  They're just paper push...