Handinaps - Queen's Cup Review

I enjoyed reviewing the last Handinaps competition race here.  So I am repeating the analysis here for the latest race.  Again successful betting/tipping is about process rather than outcome.  So I'm not going to say that Enemy Win only was the best tip.  I will look to the market and the experts to see what they thought.

The Experts

Below are the list of experts (with picks).  These were judged by the Star Sports team as the favourites to win outright when they released their original odds.


They differ from the rest of us guessers (see tables below).  Sir Rumi, HMS President and Haliphon were more likely to be picked by the experts.  These were actually the highest draws in stalls 12, 13 and 14.  However curiously Musselburgh appears to favour a low draw for Mile races.  So I am not sure why the experts favoured those.  Maybe trying to pick against the crowd.

Distribution of picks (Experts only left, All right)


The Market

The quirk of the Handinaps rules is that every race is settled 1/4 odds 4 places.  This is not standard.  The standard terms here and presented below shows the BSP for 3 places.  I've done a bit of projecting of the 3 place figure to get a 4 place figure.  It can be seen clearly from the ISP place odds that the place market was clearly overbroke.  This is the market telling us that an Each Way bet was porbably the way to go.

Apart from the Each Way angle Diocletian and Soapy Stevens were the picks going by ISP compared to BSP.  If you believe that BSP is the most accurate prediction for the true odds then these horses were better picks than the others in the long run.


Comparing ISP vs BSP, no BSP available for 4 places so projection based on 3tbp and win.





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