European Super League

In practical terms what does the ESL look like.  There are the 12 Original Founder Clubs (F), along with 3 more clubs that are expected to be invited as Founders (I).  There would then be 5 Qualifying Clubs (Q).  These 20 teams would be split into two Groups.  

I assume the split will be based on balancing the teams both by strength and by region.  And assuming the German and French clubs are forced/coaxed on board at some point.  Finally assuming with 5 qualifiers, that leaves a spot for each of the 5 countries for the next best team.  The teams involved and the split could look like below.

Chart 1: Possible example of the teams/split
for the European Super League

The top 3 teams in each Group qualify directly for the quarter finals, and 4th and 5th enter a playoff for the other places in the quarter finals. I've made some other random assumptions on the seeding for knockout rounds etc.

I have used the Clubelo rankings for the teams - and a basic/naive elo system to simulate the above League Structure to generate probabilities/odds for the Super League winners. This should give good but rough ball park figures. The sims are based on the clubs ratings now, which will obviously change over the next few years before the ESL would commence.  I dont know which teams will improve in the next few years, so my best/quickest guess at their rating in 3 years time is to use the current ratings. 

My intention is to evaluate how exciting and open the competition will be. If there are more clubs with a real chance of winning, then it's more exciting in my opinion.  The shorter the favourite the more likely the competition slowly converges to a boring inevitable conclusion.

Chart 2: Projected odds for the European Super League

For comparison I trawled google for the pre-draw Champions League odds for this season - here.

Chart 3: 2020/21 Champions League pre group phase odds.

Competitivity

The biggest gap in terms of strength is Manchester City (2020 clubelo points) and possible qualifier Lille (1773 clubelo points).  In that situation the sim made Lille about 10/1 to win the away fixture.  So lets be honest, there would still be some one sided matches.  

However this seasons Group Stage Champions League saw Lokomotiv 15/1 vs Bayern, Marseille 11/1 vs Man City, Basaksehir 20/1 vs PSG, Ferencvaros 18/1 vs Juventus, Dynamo Kiev 20/1 vs Barcelona and I could go on and on.

In the proposed ESL, all teams up to 5th in the group stage keep their competition alive.  Up to 5th qualifies for at least a play off to the knockout stage.  In the sims, the average difference between 5th and last in the final group tables was 13 pts. This implies their final 2, 3 or 4 games (of 18) are generally for pride only (but may be of relevance to their opposition). The vast majority of the rest of the matches will have some real relevance for both teams.

Most matches even in the Group stages will be high quality, competitive, meaningful matches.  Moreso I think than the current set up.  Fans want to watch matches like this.

Openness

The sims didn't rate the Qualifiers chances.  The gap between the Qualifiers and the Founders may grow as time goes by so this effect may become even more exagerated.  One of the Qualifiers won the sim only 1 in 26 sims. So it will be the same 15 teams picking up the silverware season after season (but it already is, right?).

With 5 qualifiers open to the rest of all of Europe, and taking into account that even then the format will prevent them from progressing, it is not really providing much of an opportunity to those outside the 15 Founders.  Fans of most clubs (outside the Founder 15) don't like this.

Even in relation to the Founders.  The longer league phase format and the elimination of one knockout round removes a small bit of a random element.  It is this random element that can mean that on the night, in a knockout game, a moment of magic for your team can elevate the underdog. The proposed format will benefit the stronger teams.  I've made the favourite shorter but its not too obvious by the rest of the odds in comparison that this is a real concern.  In both formats there is about a handful of clubs with a decent chance (for example > ~10%) of winning.

Over time nobody knows for sure how the gap between the founders and the qualifiers would manifest. Nobody knows if the money for the founders would level the field enough so that they all improve to the same level and its a more open league than we currently have. 

And so ...

It is UEFA's job to represent all the clubs fairly under the 55 member countries. They are doing a poor job at the moment where the opportunities for the vast majority of local and domestic clubs are diminishing. The rich are getting richer, the gaps are getting bigger. UEFA have a hard job to do at the moment, keep the rich clubs happy while still representing the rest of their members.

The ESL would only have the Founder clubs interest at heart.  This is good for the fans of these clubs. 

It is hard to pick between the two (a system currently failing, or a system built to ignore 50 footballing countries from the beginning).  There are problems with both. 

Perhaps the ESL should go ahead. Then UEFA can re-align their efforts to their forgotten purpose. Go back to basics, a Champions Cup for all domestic league champions based on straight knockout principles.  That can cater to pure football fans, local club fans. And allow the ESL to appeal to a new breed of Super Fans.