Ireland vs Denmark and a couple of Favours
Everyone knows what is at stake. Beat Denmark and Ireland will qualify directly, lose or draw and Ireland join the Playoffs.
There are a couple of other matches to play out tonight that will have a more subtle affect on Ireland's overall progress in Euro 2020.
Spain vs Romania
The best 6 group winners will be seeded in Pot 1 for the Euro 2020 draw. The next 4 winners in Pot 2.
Ireland and Spain are hosts and both are already drawn together into Group E. Spain are confirmed winners of their qualifying group. Spain are just outside the top 6 group winners at the moment but a win here will bring them safely into Pot 1. France will be likely to miss out instead. This will mean that Spain will be the Top seed in Group E - so Ireland and Spain will avoid another top team eg Belgium, France or Ukraine.
Greece vs Finland
The best 2 group runners up will be seeded in Pot 2 for the Euro 2020 draw, the worst 2 in Pot 4 and the other 6 runners up in Pot 3. The playoff winners all go into Pot 4.
If Ireland are to qualify they will beat Denmark and so have 15 pts and an improvement on their +2 goal difference. This will put them ahead of Czech who are already finished their campaign as runner up and won't improve on their record of 15 pts/+2 GD. Finland will also be a group runner up and currently on 12 pts/+2 GD but a better goals scored than Ireland so they would advance to Pot 3 before Ireland. Essentially if Ireland win and Finland win by a smaller margin or fail to win at all then Ireland will be guaranteed a Pot 3 seeding and may avoid teams like Portugal, Austria, Sweden, Turkey. Ireland would receive a Pot 4 team likely Finland, Wales or Czech. The other Pot 4 teams will come through from the Playoff Paths and will already likely be paired with another host group - for example Scotland's playoff Path winner will go to Group D (England), Romania's Playoff Path winner would go to Group C (Netherlands) etc.
The above will only matter if Ireland qualify directly. If Ireland are in the Play offs they will be in Pot 4 regardless.
There is also an unlikely scenario that Switzerland lose to Gibraltar. Then a win vs Denmark would propel Ireland up into Pot 2 (as a group winner Ireland would get a better seeding). In that unthinkable case Spain and Ireland would be top seeds of Group E and would be joined by a Pot 3 team (still some dangerous teams in here like Portugal) and a Pot 4 Team (Finland, Wales or Czech).
The full ranking of the group winners and runners up is below, I have made some assumptions on the results of the remaining fixtures.
Ireland are not listed as they are odds against but with a record played 8, GD 2+ and Pts 15 would slot in just above Czech. Wales cannot catch 15 points below but if Hungary pull off 2nd place in that group they can (although would still be unlikely to have a sufficient goal difference). That will be decided later, but the Greece-Finland results (as discussed above) could confirm Ireland in Pot 3 without having to wait on Wales/Hungary.
There are a couple of other matches to play out tonight that will have a more subtle affect on Ireland's overall progress in Euro 2020.
 |
| Ireland can avoid some of the stronger teams in the Euro 2020 draw depending on how Spain and Ireland rank among the qualifying group winners/runners up. * |
Spain vs Romania
The best 6 group winners will be seeded in Pot 1 for the Euro 2020 draw. The next 4 winners in Pot 2.
Ireland and Spain are hosts and both are already drawn together into Group E. Spain are confirmed winners of their qualifying group. Spain are just outside the top 6 group winners at the moment but a win here will bring them safely into Pot 1. France will be likely to miss out instead. This will mean that Spain will be the Top seed in Group E - so Ireland and Spain will avoid another top team eg Belgium, France or Ukraine.
Greece vs Finland
The best 2 group runners up will be seeded in Pot 2 for the Euro 2020 draw, the worst 2 in Pot 4 and the other 6 runners up in Pot 3. The playoff winners all go into Pot 4.
If Ireland are to qualify they will beat Denmark and so have 15 pts and an improvement on their +2 goal difference. This will put them ahead of Czech who are already finished their campaign as runner up and won't improve on their record of 15 pts/+2 GD. Finland will also be a group runner up and currently on 12 pts/+2 GD but a better goals scored than Ireland so they would advance to Pot 3 before Ireland. Essentially if Ireland win and Finland win by a smaller margin or fail to win at all then Ireland will be guaranteed a Pot 3 seeding and may avoid teams like Portugal, Austria, Sweden, Turkey. Ireland would receive a Pot 4 team likely Finland, Wales or Czech. The other Pot 4 teams will come through from the Playoff Paths and will already likely be paired with another host group - for example Scotland's playoff Path winner will go to Group D (England), Romania's Playoff Path winner would go to Group C (Netherlands) etc.
The above will only matter if Ireland qualify directly. If Ireland are in the Play offs they will be in Pot 4 regardless.
There is also an unlikely scenario that Switzerland lose to Gibraltar. Then a win vs Denmark would propel Ireland up into Pot 2 (as a group winner Ireland would get a better seeding). In that unthinkable case Spain and Ireland would be top seeds of Group E and would be joined by a Pot 3 team (still some dangerous teams in here like Portugal) and a Pot 4 Team (Finland, Wales or Czech).
The full ranking of the group winners and runners up is below, I have made some assumptions on the results of the remaining fixtures.
Ireland are not listed as they are odds against but with a record played 8, GD 2+ and Pts 15 would slot in just above Czech. Wales cannot catch 15 points below but if Hungary pull off 2nd place in that group they can (although would still be unlikely to have a sufficient goal difference). That will be decided later, but the Greece-Finland results (as discussed above) could confirm Ireland in Pot 3 without having to wait on Wales/Hungary.
* NOTE: Not all possibilities have been considered here, just the most likely outcomes with some variations that affect Ireland.
Comments
Post a Comment