BetVictor Golden Goal
To play, simply predict two outcomes in the selected match each week: the first goalscorer and the time of the first goal.
I talked about pool compeitions before. The key is predicting the predictions so that you can weigh up your share versus the likelihood of winning. Better to have a 1% chance of winning £25,000 than a 10% chance of winning £100.
BetVictor released some information on selections after the Euro Final.
The two favourites (Griezmann and Ronaldo) accounted for over 50% of the predictions. This seems disproportionate to the odds of either scoring first. More than likely choosing the obvious players you will be sharing with a lot of people. The times were mostly picked in 1st half with 17th minute most likely. Also popular were the 45th minute and 90th minutes. These minutes include injury time so typically are 3 times longer than any other minute. Looks like they were about twice as popular as the minutes around them. I extracted the trend line from the graph and superimposed on a grid (see below)- lining up the peaks at 45 and 90. We know that the highest peak is at 17 mins, but there are troughs either side. It appears that people are trying to be very "precise" when picking the minute and avoiding predictions like 5, 10, 15, 20, 25. You will share the Jackpot with about half as many winners with a guess of 20 minutes, for example.
In the advertisement for this competition Klopp reads some statistics on the time of a goal in a match. More goals are scored in minute 45 and 90 than any other minutes. The average minute for the first goal scored is 31.
 |
| Click to enlarge |
I suppose £100 share for hitting the favourite for free wouldn’t be too bad, but I would prefer to be a sole jackpot winner by hitting something like Eder in 109th minute! That was the winner when they had this competition in the Euro Final. (Eder started on the bench and funny enough the bookies had him fancied enough to get on the score sheet for the day, some had him shorter priced than Nani and Pogba).
The predictions for player (minute) with the least correct answers so far were Pedro (1) on 23rd Oct 2016 and Davies (71) on 8th Jan 2017 both with 0 correct predictions. Then Jon Nolan (2) on 13th Nov 2016 with one correct prediction which scooped the entire £25,000. There are in the region of 40,000 predictions per week (based off information shared by betvictor on one week in Dec 2016).
The predictions with the most correct answers so far were Costa (45) on 22nd Jan 2017 with 130 correct predictions, Hazard (6) on 30th Oct 2016 with 131 correct predictions and Mane (27) on 6th Nov with 231 correct predictions. Those predicting Mane correctly that week only got £108 and this was the smallest dividend so far.
Date
|
Match
|
Player
|
Min
|
Winners
|
Dividend
|
FGS odds
|
Popularity
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-23 | Chelsea vs Man Utd | Pedro | 1 | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2016-10-30 | Southampton vs Chelsea | Eden Hazard | 6 | 131 | £954 | N/A | |
| 2016-11-06 | Liverpool vs Watford | Sadio Mane | 29 | 231 | £108 | 19/5 | 17% |
| 2016-11-13 | Chesterfield vs Sheff Utd | Jon Nolan | 2 | 1 | £25000 | 20/1 | N/A |
| 2016-11-20 | Middlesboro vs Chelsea | Diego Costa | 41 | 58 | £431 | 14/5 | N/A |
| 2016-11-27 | Southampton vs Everton | Charlie Austin | 1 | 19 | £1316 | 17/4 | N/A |
| 2016-12-04 | Man Utd vs Everton | Zlatan Ibrahimovic | 42 | 71 | £352 | 15/4 | N/A |
| 2016-12-11 | Man Utd vs Tottenham | Henrik Mkhitaryan | 29 | 37 | £675 | 7/1 | N/A |
| 2016-12-18 | Man City vs Arsenal | Theo Walcott | 5 | 47 | £531 | 7/1 | N/A |
| 2016-12-26 | Hull vs Man City | Yaya Toure | 72 | 3 | £8333 | 13/2 | N/A |
| 2016-12-31 | Liverpool vs Man City | Georginio Wijnaldum | 8 | 13 | £3846 | 13/1 | N/A |
| 2017-01-08 | Tottenham vs Aston Villa | Ben Davies | 71 | 0 | N/A | 30/1 | N/A |
| 2017-01-15 | Man Utd vs Liverpool | James Milner | 27 | 25 | £2000 | 14/1 | N/A |
| 2017-01-22 | Chelsea vs Hull | Diego Costa | 45 | 130 | £192.31 | 23/10 | N/A |
| 2016-01-29 | Hull vs Man City | Marouane Fellaini | 44 | 4 | £6250 | 11/1 | N/A |
I will continue to add any information here to inform our picks. For the greedy ones of us we are trying to find a pick that will win us the jackpot alone.
23rd October 2016 Chelsea vs Man Utd
Most Popular: Diego Costa. Perhaps with a 53% share of the predictions.
Additional Information: BetVictor tweeted that roughly 20% of the selections were on Hazard. I take this to indicate that they are really not getting too many predictions per week and this was a week where the jackpot was a rollover pot of £125,000 - so there was a big incentive to play. If 131 represents 20% then there were only an estimated total of 655 guesses for minute 6. The 6th minute is typical enough if you examine the previous information they have released - it wouldn't be the most popular minute (peaks about 17) and it wouldn't be the least popular minute (look at the 2nd half minutes). So if you take it as an average minute in terms of numbers of guesses then you are only looking at 58,950 entries in total.
Additional Information: This week BetVictor gave us the top 5 popular picks.
I have noted the First Goalscorer odds on Betvictor and on the exchange 30 minutes prior to the kick off (after the teams were announced). It gives you an idea that the most popular pick is not always the favourite. Also notice that with Lallana you would share with only 6%, as opposed to 23%. So this would give you a share almost 4 times bigger. However according to the odds listed below both with the Betvictor odds and the exchange odds, Lallana is not even double the odds. In conclusion Lallana would not win you a share of the jackpot as often but the times he would win would more than make up. He looks like he was the value pick this week.
It's #CFC v #MUFC tomorrow and first #BVGoldenGoal match— BetVictor (@BetVictor) October 22, 2016
Which goal scorer have you chosen for your first prediction?
Result: Pedro, 1st min
Winners: 0
Additional information:
Additional information:
5 people predicted Pedro in the 3rd minute - but nobody correctly predicted the #BVGoldenGoal.— BetVictor (@BetVictor) October 23, 2016
Next week there's a £125,000 jackpot! pic.twitter.com/DWesDD1imj
These are the types of selections that are almost ideal. They are quite likely to happen and would deliver £10,000 share as opposed to a only £100's for the likes of Costa in the 17th minute.8 of you predicted Cahill to score in the 21st minute which was when the 2nd goal was scored— BetVictor (@BetVictor) October 23, 2016
So near, yet so far #BVGoldenGoal pic.twitter.com/keWtfP0AGF
30th October 2016 Southampton vs Chelsea
Most Popular: Diego Costa, 17th min
Result: Hazard, 6th min
Winners: 131
Dividend: £954 (£125,000 / 131)
Additional Information: BetVictor tweeted that roughly 20% of the selections were on Hazard. I take this to indicate that they are really not getting too many predictions per week and this was a week where the jackpot was a rollover pot of £125,000 - so there was a big incentive to play. If 131 represents 20% then there were only an estimated total of 655 guesses for minute 6. The 6th minute is typical enough if you examine the previous information they have released - it wouldn't be the most popular minute (peaks about 17) and it wouldn't be the least popular minute (look at the 2nd half minutes). So if you take it as an average minute in terms of numbers of guesses then you are only looking at 58,950 entries in total.
6th November 2016 Liverpool vs Watford
Most Popular: Philippe Coutinho, 17th min.
Result: Mane, 27th min
Winners: 231
Dividend: £108 (£25,000 / 231)
Dividend: £108 (£25,000 / 231)
Additional Information: This week BetVictor gave us the top 5 popular picks.
I have noted the First Goalscorer odds on Betvictor and on the exchange 30 minutes prior to the kick off (after the teams were announced). It gives you an idea that the most popular pick is not always the favourite. Also notice that with Lallana you would share with only 6%, as opposed to 23%. So this would give you a share almost 4 times bigger. However according to the odds listed below both with the Betvictor odds and the exchange odds, Lallana is not even double the odds. In conclusion Lallana would not win you a share of the jackpot as often but the times he would win would more than make up. He looks like he was the value pick this week.
| Golden Goal predictions | BetVictor FGS odds | betfair exchange odds (back/lay) | |
|---|---|---|---|
Coutinho
|
23%
|
19/4
|
7.6/7.8
|
Firminio
|
22%
|
17/5
|
6.0/6.2
|
Mane
|
17%
|
19/5
|
6.8/7.0
|
Sturridge
|
12%
|
17/5
|
6.8/55.0
|
Lallana
|
6%
|
11/2
|
11.0/12.0
|
13th November 2016 Chesterfield vs Sheffield United
Most Popular: No information provided.
Result: Jon Nolan, 2nd min
Winners: 1
Dividend: £25,000
Additional Information: This week BetVictor gave very little information as to what or when the popular picks were.
I have noted the First Goalscorer odds on Betvictor and on the exchange 30 minutes prior to the kick off (after the teams were announced). Below is the data for some of the favourites and for the winner.
I am slightly surprised that a 20/1 shot in an early minute scooped the jackpot. I imagined we were going for a rollover - considering Sheff Utd were strong favourite and BetVictor were publicising the fact Chesterfield had not scored in their last 6 games in League 1. Also this was the Chesterfield midfielder's first goal in League football. It is strange because when Pedro scored for Chelsea in minute 1 there were no winners. It may however be a result of the fact that most of the Golden Goals are coming in the very early minutes of the matches so far - maybe there is a shift towards the early minutes.
I am slightly surprised that a 20/1 shot in an early minute scooped the jackpot. I imagined we were going for a rollover - considering Sheff Utd were strong favourite and BetVictor were publicising the fact Chesterfield had not scored in their last 6 games in League 1. Also this was the Chesterfield midfielder's first goal in League football. It is strange because when Pedro scored for Chelsea in minute 1 there were no winners. It may however be a result of the fact that most of the Golden Goals are coming in the very early minutes of the matches so far - maybe there is a shift towards the early minutes.
| Golden Goal predictions | BetVictor FGS odds | betfair exchange odds (back/lay) | |
|---|---|---|---|
Billy Sharp
|
N/A
|
31/10
|
5.4/5.5
|
Leon Clark
|
N/A
|
19/4
|
5.4/ -
|
Matt Done
|
N/A
|
5/1
|
N/A
|
Ched Evans
|
N/A
|
11/2
|
8.8/ -
|
Jon Nolan
|
N/A
|
20/1
|
24.0/ -
|
20th November 2016 Middlesborough vs Chelsea
Most Popular: No information provided.
Result: Diego Costa, 41st min
Winners: 58
Dividend: £431
Additional Information: This week again BetVictor gave very little information as to what or when the popular picks were.
I have noted the First Goalscorer odds on Betvictor and on the exchange 30 minutes prior to the kick off (after the teams were announced). Below is the data for some of the favourites and for the winner.
This was an interesting result as it was the first time that the bookie's favourite has scored the first goal. The dividend was not as small as other times (when Hazard (6) and Mane (27) scored). From my estimates of previous data the 27th minute got 3 times the number of guesses compared to the 41st minute, but even if Costa got 3 times the correct answers he still would not have topped out Mane's number of correct guesses. A little surprising, yes, but also agrees with what seems to be a trend that the later minutes are throwing up less guesses. Especially in the Chelsea games the first goals have all been very early.
27th November 2016 Southampton vs Everton
|
|---|
|
|---|
Most Popular: No information provided.
Result: Yaya Toure, 72nd min
Winners: 3
Dividend: £8333
Additional Information: This was interesting as it is the first BV Golden Goal scored in the 2nd half - and late in the 2nd half too. There were still 3 people that managed to pick it. Toure was one of the favourites for the First Goal Scorer so that must have helped.
Also Bet Victor revealed in a tweet how many entrants there were this week - 42,121. This is important to know as you can use it to estimate the share you are likely to win. For example if half the people tend to pick the favourite with you then you will have the same scorer as 21000 other people - so depending on the minute you could be sharing with a lot and your dividend so could be very small. To be a sole winner and to hit the jackpot you are looking at picking a 1 in 40,000 shot!
|
|---|
Comments
Post a Comment