Ireland's precarious path to France 2016
The recent slip up from Scotland in Georgia means that Ireland are back in the hunt for Euro qualification. They are 3rd in their group and four points ahead of Scotland. Assuming that Scotland beat Gibraltar then a win in either of Ireland's last two games (Germany[H] and Poland[A]) would be enough to guarantee 3rd and at least a playoff. A draw in either would suffice if Scotland fail to beat Poland in Scotland. Ireland can even lose both and still hold on to 3rd if Scotland lose to Poland.
If Ireland do hold on to 3rd spot they would likely go into a playoff against one of the other third placed teams.
See below 3rd placed teams ranked courtesy of wikipedia.
Currently Ukraine would qualify automatically and the rest would be seeded according to the UEFA National Co-efficient.
The unofficial rankings are as below (courtesy of footballseeding.com). Most teams have one or two more games before the below ranking will be made official and much can change in those few games. Especially when you consider that Ireland, Slovakia, Norway,Turkey, Israel and Slovenia are all bunched closely together.
However as it stands.
Great! Ireland would be seeded and so avoid the big guns like Sweden & Croatia. They could hope for a relatively easy draw against Slovenia, Israel or Albania.
What could go wrong! Well lots.
The summary is this:
Seems unlikely, well yes it is. Details are below but I forgive you if you don't read any further.
1. Turkey are currently 3rd but will do extremely well to hold off the Netherlands. Turkey have the best two teams in the group to play leaving them the distinct posibbility of scoring no more points. Netherlands have Kazakhstan [A] and Czech[H] left and only 2 points to make up. If Netherlands are 3rd instead of Turkey then Netherlands would be seeded instead of Ireland. We could then be faced with a playoff potentially against Netherlands or one of the other big teams.
2. Turkey could hold off Netherlands with a Win and a Draw against Iceland and Czech Republic. This would improve their current co-efficient points (23773) by about 1620 (for win) + 800 (for draw) to a total of 26193. With Ireland looking at perhaps only a draw (800) and a loss (380) in the last two games for a total of 26082, Turkey would knock us out of the seeded group.
We need Turkey to do well but not too well, or else we need to sort it out ourselves and a win against Poland or Germany would keep the Turks behind us. A win and a loss would give Ireland 26901 pts.
3. Albania have two matches remaining and are within 1 point of Denmark. If Denmark who have only one match to play against Portugal were to lose then Albania only need 2 points out of Serbia and Armenia to take second and drop Denmark into 3rd. In which case Denmark would be seeded ahead of Ireland and Ireland again drop into the unseeded pot.
4. Slovenia currently with 23001 points should end up with 26241 if as expected they beat both Lithuania and San Marino. Again this is better than Ireland's expected total (D/L as said gives us 26082). So again it knocks us into the unseeded teams. The only silver lining here is that with Slovenia promoted to the seeded teams we could hope to draw them and avoid the other big guns.
5. Bosnia are 2 points behind Israel. Israel should hold them off but if Bosnia who are ranked ahead of Ireland were to clinch 3rd in their group ahead of Israel then Ireland again drop into unseeded territory. Bosnia have Wales[H] and Cypurs[A] to play while Israel with a 2 point advantage have Cyprus[H] and Belgium[A]. Israel have the better head-to-head. Four points would guarantee they hold their spot, or three points if Bosnia fail to beat Wales.
6. Again Israel with two wins can achieve 26662 ranking points. I think it is unlikley that they will beat Belgium. But if they do so after also beating Cyprus then a draw and a loss for Ireland (which to be honest is the best we are likely to get) would put us unseeded again.
So at the moment we are balanced on a knife edge and it looks very likely that one way or another either Netherlands, Denmark, Slovenia or Turkey will edge us out of the seeds and land us with a tough playoff.
A couple of optimistic scenarios.
1. Norway are currently 2nd ahead of Croatia but they still have to face Italy. Croatia are 1 point behind and have a better head-to-head. Croatia have Bulgaria[H] and Malta[A] - Norway have Malta[H] and a tough one against Italy[A]. Norway are currently behind Ireland on the UEFA Co-efficient but with an almost guaranteed win against Malta they will have at least 26419 points. So if Croatia do lift themselves out of 3rd, we would still need a win against either Poland or Germany to be sure that we would be seeded above Norway. This scenario could be complicated as Croatia are facing a possible points deduction making it even less likely that they will be replaced by Norway as 3rd.
2. Montenegro are 1 point behind Sweden in 4th. Montenegro would be seeded below us if they could knock Sweden from 3rd spot. It's unlikely. Sweden have Liechenstein[A] and Moldova[H] left. Montenegro have Austria[H] and Russia[A].
3. Another unlikely scenario would be for Finland to reel in Hungary. Finland would definitely be ranked below Ireland for seeding. They are 3 points behind Hungary with Romania[A] and N.Ireland[H] left. Hungary have Faroes[H] and Greece[A]. Their head-to-head record is identical, so it would go to goal difference if equal on points.
4. Another outcome to help us would be Ukraine to take 2nd from Slovakia. Ukraine play Macedonia[A] and Spain[H] while Slovakia play Belarus[H] and Luxembourg[A] - so its a long shot for Ukraine to make up 3 points (and Slovakia have the better head-to-head). We would need Slovakia to lose both games to realistically expect to over take them in the UEFA co-efficient system too.
The best case scenario is to be seeded and face one of Israel, Slovenia, Turkey or Albania. All would give us a tough game but would be beatable.
The worst case scenario is that they won't be seeded and will face one of Netherlands, Sweden, Croatia or Ukraine. This would be tough.
Either way how likely are they to qualify? Not likely.
If Ireland do hold on to 3rd spot they would likely go into a playoff against one of the other third placed teams.
See below 3rd placed teams ranked courtesy of wikipedia.
Currently Ukraine would qualify automatically and the rest would be seeded according to the UEFA National Co-efficient.
The unofficial rankings are as below (courtesy of footballseeding.com). Most teams have one or two more games before the below ranking will be made official and much can change in those few games. Especially when you consider that Ireland, Slovakia, Norway,Turkey, Israel and Slovenia are all bunched closely together.
However as it stands.
Ukraine would qualify automatically.
The seeded teams would be
Croatia (Ranked 14th, 27362pts, Bulgaria[H] Malta[A] left to play)
Sweden (Ranked 17th, 25748pts, Liechtenstein[A] Moldova[H] left to play)
Hungary (Ranked 20th, 25142pts, Faroes[H] Greece[A] left to play)
Ireland (Ranked 22nd, 24902pts, Germany[H] Poland [A] left to play)
The unseeded teams would be
Turkey (Ranked 26th, 23773pts, Czech[A] Iceland[H] left to play)
Israel (Ranked 27th, 23422pts, Cyprus[H] Belgium[A] left to play)
Slovenia (Ranked 28th, 23001pts, Lithuania [H] San Marino [A] left to play)
Albania (Ranked 32nd, 20191pts, Serbia[H] Armenia[A] left to play)
The seeded teams would be
Croatia (Ranked 14th, 27362pts, Bulgaria[H] Malta[A] left to play)
Sweden (Ranked 17th, 25748pts, Liechtenstein[A] Moldova[H] left to play)
Hungary (Ranked 20th, 25142pts, Faroes[H] Greece[A] left to play)
Ireland (Ranked 22nd, 24902pts, Germany[H] Poland [A] left to play)
The unseeded teams would be
Turkey (Ranked 26th, 23773pts, Czech[A] Iceland[H] left to play)
Israel (Ranked 27th, 23422pts, Cyprus[H] Belgium[A] left to play)
Slovenia (Ranked 28th, 23001pts, Lithuania [H] San Marino [A] left to play)
Albania (Ranked 32nd, 20191pts, Serbia[H] Armenia[A] left to play)
Great! Ireland would be seeded and so avoid the big guns like Sweden & Croatia. They could hope for a relatively easy draw against Slovenia, Israel or Albania.
What could go wrong! Well lots.
The summary is this:
We need to beat Poland (or Germany) to make sure that Israel, Norway, Turkey or Slovenia don't out rank us in the UEFA co-efficient system. We also have to rely on Turkey and Israel holding off Netherlands and Bosnia respectively to hold on to their 3rd spots. And hope that Albania don't overtake Denmark.
Seems unlikely, well yes it is. Details are below but I forgive you if you don't read any further.
1. Turkey are currently 3rd but will do extremely well to hold off the Netherlands. Turkey have the best two teams in the group to play leaving them the distinct posibbility of scoring no more points. Netherlands have Kazakhstan [A] and Czech[H] left and only 2 points to make up. If Netherlands are 3rd instead of Turkey then Netherlands would be seeded instead of Ireland. We could then be faced with a playoff potentially against Netherlands or one of the other big teams.
2. Turkey could hold off Netherlands with a Win and a Draw against Iceland and Czech Republic. This would improve their current co-efficient points (23773) by about 1620 (for win) + 800 (for draw) to a total of 26193. With Ireland looking at perhaps only a draw (800) and a loss (380) in the last two games for a total of 26082, Turkey would knock us out of the seeded group.
We need Turkey to do well but not too well, or else we need to sort it out ourselves and a win against Poland or Germany would keep the Turks behind us. A win and a loss would give Ireland 26901 pts.
3. Albania have two matches remaining and are within 1 point of Denmark. If Denmark who have only one match to play against Portugal were to lose then Albania only need 2 points out of Serbia and Armenia to take second and drop Denmark into 3rd. In which case Denmark would be seeded ahead of Ireland and Ireland again drop into the unseeded pot.
4. Slovenia currently with 23001 points should end up with 26241 if as expected they beat both Lithuania and San Marino. Again this is better than Ireland's expected total (D/L as said gives us 26082). So again it knocks us into the unseeded teams. The only silver lining here is that with Slovenia promoted to the seeded teams we could hope to draw them and avoid the other big guns.
5. Bosnia are 2 points behind Israel. Israel should hold them off but if Bosnia who are ranked ahead of Ireland were to clinch 3rd in their group ahead of Israel then Ireland again drop into unseeded territory. Bosnia have Wales[H] and Cypurs[A] to play while Israel with a 2 point advantage have Cyprus[H] and Belgium[A]. Israel have the better head-to-head. Four points would guarantee they hold their spot, or three points if Bosnia fail to beat Wales.
6. Again Israel with two wins can achieve 26662 ranking points. I think it is unlikley that they will beat Belgium. But if they do so after also beating Cyprus then a draw and a loss for Ireland (which to be honest is the best we are likely to get) would put us unseeded again.
So at the moment we are balanced on a knife edge and it looks very likely that one way or another either Netherlands, Denmark, Slovenia or Turkey will edge us out of the seeds and land us with a tough playoff.
A couple of optimistic scenarios.
1. Norway are currently 2nd ahead of Croatia but they still have to face Italy. Croatia are 1 point behind and have a better head-to-head. Croatia have Bulgaria[H] and Malta[A] - Norway have Malta[H] and a tough one against Italy[A]. Norway are currently behind Ireland on the UEFA Co-efficient but with an almost guaranteed win against Malta they will have at least 26419 points. So if Croatia do lift themselves out of 3rd, we would still need a win against either Poland or Germany to be sure that we would be seeded above Norway. This scenario could be complicated as Croatia are facing a possible points deduction making it even less likely that they will be replaced by Norway as 3rd.
2. Montenegro are 1 point behind Sweden in 4th. Montenegro would be seeded below us if they could knock Sweden from 3rd spot. It's unlikely. Sweden have Liechenstein[A] and Moldova[H] left. Montenegro have Austria[H] and Russia[A].
3. Another unlikely scenario would be for Finland to reel in Hungary. Finland would definitely be ranked below Ireland for seeding. They are 3 points behind Hungary with Romania[A] and N.Ireland[H] left. Hungary have Faroes[H] and Greece[A]. Their head-to-head record is identical, so it would go to goal difference if equal on points.
4. Another outcome to help us would be Ukraine to take 2nd from Slovakia. Ukraine play Macedonia[A] and Spain[H] while Slovakia play Belarus[H] and Luxembourg[A] - so its a long shot for Ukraine to make up 3 points (and Slovakia have the better head-to-head). We would need Slovakia to lose both games to realistically expect to over take them in the UEFA co-efficient system too.
The best case scenario is to be seeded and face one of Israel, Slovenia, Turkey or Albania. All would give us a tough game but would be beatable.
The worst case scenario is that they won't be seeded and will face one of Netherlands, Sweden, Croatia or Ukraine. This would be tough.
Either way how likely are they to qualify? Not likely.
Comments
Post a Comment