Market Watch: Premier League Outright
There are some markets appearing now for Premier League 2023/24 Outrights so we decided to take a look. Often the most accurate prediction is the exchange, but at this early stage and with only a small amount of money matched ( Matched: EUR 19,816 ) there could be some inconsistencies. As a comparison I also had developed a market implied rating from the closing line match day odds here . So my approach was: 1. Assume the outright exchange odds represent a probability of winning a 38 match league. 2. According to the exchange ranking assign all teams from the favourite to the underdog a rating 1190 down to 810 in steps of 20. The standard "average" elo rating is 1000 so its centred on this but we already know the top teams in the market are better so hopefully initialising the ratings this way will speed up convergence. 3. Run a full season sim based on these assigned elo ratings. 4. Compare to the exchange outright odds and adjust the teams elo rating up or down accor...