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Showing posts from November, 2022

FoG Prediction

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This is a player based rating adjusted for the market information. The first step for each country was to list the squad and the clubs that their players play for.  Once the full squads were announced, I averaged the top 16 players club's elo rating (from clubelo.com). Assumption : The assumption here is that players find their level, a player that has made it to Man City is better than a player stuck in some middle eastern league. Risks :   Not all teams are rated on clubelo.com and I have had a guess on the clubs outside Europe and the lower league European clubs.  This will only affect some countries who aren't going to make much of a dent in the outrights anyway. The big 5 leagues of England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy are packed with foreign talent filled in with local talent.  As a result I feel its inflated the ratings for those countries. It's possible also that teams can be so much more than the sum of their parts, this aggregation of the individ...

The Ratings: Premier League

 The Ratings*: More info:  https://fog2014.blogspot.com/2022/11/premier-league-ratings.html   https://fog2014.blogspot.com/2022/10/elo-reverse-calculator.html Team Latest Rating Previous Rating Manchester City 1271.40 1261.03 Arsenal 1151.83 1141.92 Liverpool 1148.89 1145.08 Newcastle 1107.78 1089.11 Brighton 1095.01 1077.22 Manchester Utd 1076.81 1094.59 Chelsea 1023.92 1033.83 Tottenham 1011.22 1012.88 Aston Villa 1001.95 1012.56 Brentford 986.46 978.72 West Ham 954.01 964.38 Crystal Palace 951.06 916.65 Leicester 935.89 925.87 Wolves 932.17 935.15 Leeds 910.97 907.05 Fulham 910.01 913.82 Bournemouth 905.02 908.94 Everton 899.34 909.36 Nottingham 880.79 888.52 Southampton 845.48 864.15 * updated 2023-05-04 Upcoming Fixtures: Date Home Away Home Rating Away Rating H D A 2023-04-29 Brentford Nottingham 978.72 888.52 1.78 4.06 5.19 2023-04-29 Brighton Wolves 1074.25 935.15 1.58 4.58 6.71 2023-04-29 Crystal Palace West Ham 916.65 998.79 3.28 3.55 2.42 2023-04-30 Bournemouth...