FoG

Belgium play England in the 3rd place play-off, both teams are out of the tournament proper - although 3rd place is a small incentive, this can be almost viewed a friendly game. Much like the same match up in the last game of the Group Stages. So how would you price this in comparison to the original group game opening price? How would you price it in comparison to the closing price of the original group game? There is quite a difference now in the pricing of both games. For the opening price for the original Group game it may have been expected to be more of a competitive fixture, at least it might have been important to finish 1st or 2nd in the group.  There are the normal concerns of a dead rubber especially based on the make up of the group  - a big gap between the top 2 and bottom 2 teams, coupled with the fact that the top 2 teams play last. But when the opening price was conceived nobody could have predicted how things would turn out with Germany dropping out...

There is a buzz starting around England's chances and rightly so - the wisdom of the betfair hive mind has acted to shorten their price from 18.5 pre tournament into 8.2 now. This represents a move from about 5% chance to just over 12% chance. It has mostly been out of their control up to now, the victory against Tunisia was expected so only raised their hopes by 1.5%, similarly the victory over Panama. The big influencers were the German and Spanish eliminations which raised their chances by 2% and 3% respectively. Even defeat to Belgium increased England's chances ever so slightly. It is reason for optimism for sure as their chances have at least doubled. But feet need to stick firmly on the ground. Their advantage so far has come from outside influences without them having to perform, now its time for them to prove themselves. Japan was assumed the easier R16 match for Group G but they went two up on Belgium - so what of Colombia? Some places are calling this one m...