FoG

For the  Sophisticated Predictions Contest for Euro 2024  I have had an attempt to build a prediction. There is information in bookie odds and often the most accurate probability of a match result between two teams is in the Closing Match odds at time of kick off.  At least if you know a better prediction you will be rich.  But for the rest of us non-professional bettors and even most professional bettors the closing line will be the best prediction for the probability of a football match that you can get. Given the probability we can easily deconstruct the relative ratings of the teams.  On a basic level the favourite is better team than the underdog - and the shorter their odds the bigger the gap in the ratings. So I have a basic ELO-like system, but it is based on the closing match odds rather than the result.  Using odds over result I think the ratings converge on something more realistic and do it much quicker.   For example England played Ge...