FoG

So I had an idea to complete the Premier League season in fewer matches. There is a fixture list of remaining fixtures, but not all fixtures are created equally. For example Liverpool vs Aston Villa would put a bit more shape to both the title race and the relegation battle, or Man Utd vs Sheff Utd would add significant information to the race for Champions League spots. One process to consider would be to rank the remaining fixtures by relevance based on title/relegation/Champions/Europa League "battle", based on which "battle" is most open and which teams are most involved in those battles. 1. Rank the remaining fixtures. 2. Play the most relevant next. 3. Check the table if all "battles" are mathematically decided then stop, else repeat from 1. It may even increase the fairness as the most relevant matches are prioritised.  It is more likely that you get a fair run in where Villa and Brighton both play Liverpool full strength and less lik...

For the  Virtual Grand National you can see quite a big overround built into the win price (144% - fair is 100%), the overround on the place is not as big proportionally speaking (595% - fair is 500%). Will this give us an opportunity to find value in the each way market? First we have to decide how we believe the places are decided. For the win it is the consensus that the prices are fair.  A simulation/algorithm based on the horses form and strengths will determine the probability of each horse winning.  The prices will then directly represent this probability with a bit of margin built in.  This works. For placing it is a bit more complicated. You can't have both a realistic simulation to generate the places probablities/prices and each way prices that represent the actual place price. Here is how the racingpost describes the simulation: The simulation itself is made up of mathematical algorithms using data taken from the horses' previou...