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Showing posts from August, 2019

Harville, Discounted Harville and Each Way bets

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I have used a chrome extension to calculate the over rounds and the place book over rounds and add to the oddschecker website. For Top 2 places, the overround should sum to 200%.  191% place overround means that the place book is over broke, i.e. if the bookie were to take proportioned money on all outcomes then for every £191 in stakes it took it would pay out £200 forcing it to lose money. That's bad for the bookie, but it is good for you, you can take a plus EV bet on the Top 2 odds. The catch is you have to take a negative EV bet on the win odds which can completely cancel out the value of the Top 2 bet.  Sometimes we can take advantage of an over broke place book. To do so we can calculate the odds the bookies are offering on win and place (easy) and then we need an estimate of the true odds for win and place. Sometimes its relatively easy to get an estimate for win and place when there is a liquid popular market available on betfair exchange. In the case o...